The Red, Orange and Blue

Alums about New Hampshire

2008-01-09T01:21:00.000-05:00

John Stockton ’68 and Henry Von Kohorn ’66 snuck into the Sen. Barack Obama Concord High School rally with press passes around their necks. Neither works for a media outlet, but they had learned that planning on getting in could be risky, especially with the Obama and Clinton events often spilling over into overflow rooms.

The pair couldn’t vote during the primary, neither lives in New Hampshire, yet they came because, according to Von Kohorn, “We’re political junkies.” They intended to see as many candidates as possible, and by Jan. 4 they had seen former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio).

There are many Princeton alumni in New Hampshire for the primary working for the campaigns, covering the politics or just watching the melee in addition to the 607 alumni who live here.

Melissa Haris-Lacewell, professor of politics and African-American studies, said “Everywhere I look … our school is part of it, right in the mix of everything that’s going on nationally.

Like the current Princeton students who traveled up to volunteer during the last six days before primary, many alumni, old and young, work within the campaigns. Chris Lu ’88 is Obama’s legislative director and on the Republican side Alex Maugery ’07 works for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Craig Robinson ’83 is supporting Obama, but perhaps for a different reason from the other voters. Obama is his brother-in-law. Robinson’s fellow Princeton basketball alum, Bill Bradley ’65, endorsed Obama on Monday morning and campaigned for him at three sites the day before the primary.

Bradley, himself a former presidential candidate, said, before a crowd of about 100 outside the “Obama for America” Concord field office, “I believe that Barack Obama is what the country needs.”

He described Obama as embracing a politics not restrained by issues of “red or blue” but rather recognizes “the good in people” and can engage them. Bradley described red versus blue as a lie and felt that Obama’s disregard for that idea would allow him to reform democracy.

He added, “Princeton supports Obama.”

Princeton’s other most recent presidential candidate, Ralph Nader ’55, supported Edwards during the Iowa caucus, directing voters to “giv[e] him a victory.”

Perhaps the most visible Princetonian during the New Hampshire debate was not a candidate but the moderator Charles Gibson ’65, host of ABC World News with Charles Gibson. The Republican and Democratic debates ran 90 minutes back to back, with Gibson offering a question and then quietly allowing the candidates to interact with each other.

Dugald McConnell ’93, a producer for CNN, is also covering the New Hampshire primary. McConnell, who’s covered campaigns in the past, noted one major change in the way the media is covering the contest. McConnell noted there is “Less of journalist intervention, filter, and analysis and more of simply putting direct material on the internet for anyone to see and read and make whatever of it they will.”

He added “I’ve seen a number of Princeton alums out on the trails.”

Clinton, McCain Pull Off Stunning Upsets

2008-01-09T01:09:00.000-05:00

Barack Obama with wife Michelle '85

Nashua, N.H., 1:14 a.m.- Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama with a stunning upset in Tuesday night’s New Hampshire primary, breathing new life into her White House bid following her third-place finish in the Iowa Caucus Jan. 3. John McCain took first place in the Republican primary, marking an incredible comeback for a campaign left for dead just weeks ago.

Clinton’s victory in the first-in-the-nation primary marked an impressive comeback following her disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa Caucuses on Jan. 3. The race for the democratic nomination is now a tight one between the former first lady and the freshman Illinois senator.

McCain’s victory on the Republican side left the future of the GOP race uncertain as well.

The night delivered Mitt Romney his second loss of the early primary season. It marked the first time a current or former Massachusetts governor or senator did not win the primary in the neighboring Granite State. The evening set up a rematch between McCain and Romney in the Michigan primary just one week away.

On a day with unusually warm temperatures, New Hampshire voters went to their polling places in record numbers. New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner predicted last week that voters could cast more than 500,000 ballots, shattering the previous record of 396,000 ballots cast in 2000.

With nearly 96 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton beat out Obama 39%-36%, with John Edwards finishing a distant third at 17%. On the Republican side, McCain took 37% to Romney’s 32%. Mike Huckabee, victor in the Iowa Caucuses last Thursday, finished third with 11%.

Princetonians join Clinton for campaign finish

2008-01-07T23:46:00.001-05:00

(Back, from left: Regina Lee ’08, Julia Kaplan ’11, Peri Rosenstein ’08. Front: Molly O’Connor '11, Jack Ackerman ’11)

Manchester, N.H., 9:30 p.m. - They’re due at work by 4:45 a.m., but tonight five Princeton undergrads made their way to Hillary Clinton’s final rally before polls open in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary tomorrow morning.

The students have logged long hours over the last four days as they canvassed the state’s snow-covered neighborhoods, phoned into countless homes to shore up support and stood on streets corners with yard signs to provide “viz” for the New York senator’s campaign.

Tonight they joined hundreds of other Clinton supporters in a large warehouse near the Manchester airport as Clinton, joined by her husband and daughter, thanked voters for their support and stressed the importance of getting out the vote.

At one point in her speech, Clinton began saying that “I know what it’ll take … [to be president]” but was interrupted by a male supporter who shouted “A woman!” to loud cheers.

Just like the Clinton rally at Nashua North on Sunday morning, a steady stream of people left the rally starting less than 15 minutes after it began. By the end supporters had steadily made their way forward to fill in the gaps. Nonetheless, most of those in attendance showed their support in what is likely to be an uphill battle tomorrow against frontrunner Barack Obama.

Other pictures from this evening’s rally:

McCain and Obama win (the first vote)

2008-01-07T23:46:00.000-05:00

Dixville Notch, a town of 24 with 17 registered voters, opened the polls at 12:01 a.m. today Jan. 8, the first vote in the New Hampshire primary. They declared McCain and Obama the winners seven minutes later. Dixville Notch has voted just after midnight since 1960. They file in and vote by placing their ballots in a ballot box.

Results:

McCain - 4, Romney - 2, Giuliani - 1

Obama - 7, Edwards - 2, Richardson - 1

Sprint To The Finish: The Polls

2008-01-07T18:36:00.000-05:00

NASHUA, N.H., 6:52 p.m. - The Democratic race in New Hampshire was turned upside down this after Barack Obama's victory in Iowa, according to the latest polls among Granite State Democrats. The Illinois senator leads by anywhere from one to 13 points in each of the 15 polls published since the results from the Caucuses came in.

New polls out today by CNN and Rasmussen show Obama with a 10-point lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, while polls by CBS News and Marist show the lead at seven points and eight points, respectively. A Suffolk/WHDH poll shows Obama with a one-point lead over his New York counterpart. Former Sen. John Edwards is a distant third in each race.

On the Republican side, polls by the same organizations show Arizona Sen. John McCain with a steady lead over rival Mitt Romney. Romney had been losing ground to McCain since Christmas, and a tough loss to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee last Thursday made matters worse. CNN shows the Arizona senator with a six-point lead over the former Massachusetts governor, while Marist shows him with a four-point edge. Suffolk/WHDH numbers show a three-point spread between the two with McCain leading, while Rasmussen has McCain's lead at just one point, well within the margin of error.

Sprint To The Finish: The Events

2008-01-07T18:27:00.000-05:00

NASHUA, N.H., 6:51 p.m. - The polls in New Hampshire open in just under 12 hours, and frontrunners from both parties are sprinting to the finish. As the sun sets on a relatively warm winter night, Democratic and Republican candidates continue to crisscross the state, rallying their troops and wooing undecided voters.

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney will make stops in Bedford and Manchester, while McCain ends his final full day of campaigning with a stop in Portsmouth. Later tonight, Mike Huckabee will make an appearance on "The Late Show with David Letterman." Last week, Huckabee traded jokes and displayed his guitar skills on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" the night before the Iowa Caucuses.

Among the Democrats, John Edwards will hit Dover, Somersworth, Manchester and Durham tonight. Hillary Clinton will hold a final rally at the Manchester airport and Obama will wrap up his campaign with an event in Concord.

Bradley ’65: Country needs Obama

2008-01-07T17:52:00.000-05:00

He is legend inside Dillon Gym. His number hangs from the rafters at Madison Square Garden. And today, Bill Bradley ’65 threw his support behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign one day before voters go to the polls in New Hampshire.

The announcement took place outside Obama’s Concord campaign office, the same facility Bradley used for his campaign headquarters during his presidential run in 2000. Originally scheduled indoors, the 15-minute event took place outside because the crowd of more than 100, most of them under the age of 30, couldn’t fit inside.

“I believe that Barack Obama is what the country needs,” Bradley declared. “I feel very much like this is history. We can be part of history.”

Bradley said Obama practices the “politics of greater possibilities” and credited him with being able to see the “broader picture.”

“When you look at Barack, we can see how far we’ve come as a country,” he said. “And that allows us to see how much further we can go.”

Bradley added that politicians today have to reach out to the broadest possible number of Americans and let them know they can be a part of the answer to the problems facing the country.

Bradley jokingly pointed out that, with his announcement, half of the four highest-scoring basketball players in Princeton history support the Obama candidacy. The other is Craig Robinson ’83. His sister is Barack's wife, Michelle Robinson Obama ’85.

"Princeton is for Obama," Bradley said with a smile, referencing the Illinois senator's many ties to the University.

The Obama supporters spent much of the afternoon holding signs along the town’s main drag, and they were joined by volunteers from nearly every other Democratic and Republican campaign. The competitive shouting between campaigners and constant horn-honking from drivers showing their support made for a rather chaotic situation.

Working for the Votes: McCain

2008-01-07T14:49:00.000-05:00

Just two of the 20 PACE Center volunteers in New Hampshire are campaigning for Republicans. Bryan Gergen '08 and Chris Nenno '08 are campaigning for Arizona Sen. John McCain. We met them in McCain’s Nashua field office after they returned from a short McCain rally this morning. Short being the operative word, as McCain only spoke for two minutes, 40 seconds before moving on to his next event on this the last full day of campaigning.

The office was on the second floor of a building with more people than it could support. Volunteers were standing in the hallways and outside other companies’ doors to make phone calls encouraging voters to choose John McCain. That was what Bryan and Chris were doing this morning, contacting people who had expressed that they were divided between supporting McCain or another candidate. Sometimes they received answering machines, and other times they reached supporters of other campaigns, ranging from New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Yet they also had success , finding supporters to whom they offered rides to the polls. Each answering machine message ended with the phrase “This call was paid for by John McCain 2008.” Sometimes the people in the room sounded like they were speaking in a round.

The Daily Princetonian Moves Primetime

2008-01-07T01:45:00.000-05:00

After the back of Matt Westmoreland's head ended up on the cover of The New York Times yesterday, you might have thought the 'Prince' had reached the pinnacle of national press coverage, but no. Today C-SPAN fed footage of Matt and me talking with Michelle Obama '85 about Old Nassau and the nation's favorite source for Princeton news, The Daily Princetonian.

More Potential First Spouses

2008-01-07T01:42:00.000-05:00

In the film "Primary Colors," which tells the story of the 1992 presidential campaign, the character representing Bill Clinton stays late into the night talking to a worker at a small donut shop. This evening I saw what that characterization was based on. At a small event with perhaps 75 people, former President Clinton gave a speech encouraging people to vote for his wife and finished it by taking questions from anyone in the audience who wanted to ask one. I asked him about youth turnout in Iowa and how the Clinton campaign was planning to encourage turnout. He said, “She’s been doing a lot of events here, around the country … the Obama campaign simply did a better outreach.”

While Hillary never mentioned Iowa, Bill noted failures in Iowa and encouraged New Hampshire to have its own campaign and not simply follow Iowa’s results. He also spoke a great deal about his own presidency, comparing his record on jobs with that of President Bush’s and promising Hillary would offer a return to more prosperous times.

His audience was young, perhaps because it was located in a bar and in a university town. They were an excited crowd, though some started filtering out before the end. President Clinton stayed on even after the end of his remarks, having individual discussions among the mass of people who approached him.

Michelle Obama '85's (not) House Party

2008-01-07T01:37:00.000-05:00

The Michelle Obama ’85 House Party we attended today was actually held in the Plymouth “Obama for America” field office. Its slightly misleading name arose because as people RSVPed for the event, it became obvious that there would not be enough room to house all the attendees, so instead the office was cleaned out and chairs were set before a podium. We arrived only 10 minutes before the projected 4:30 p.m. start time because Hillary Clinton’s rally ran an hour late and was halfway across the state.

The audience’s composition was in stark contrast to the Obama rally we attended on Jan. 4. That day most of the audience was under over the age of 50, but at today's event the most common constituency of the audience was people over 55, especially women. They were joined by small pockets of young people under 25. There were between 150 and 200 people seated and standing.

While the audience waited for Michelle Obama to arrive — she was also an hour late — they milled about and ate baked goods. Unlike all the other rallies and town hall meetings, there was enough room left to move around.

Michelle Obama entered to a standing ovation from the audience before moving into a about an hour long prepared speech. She used her time to address the common concern levied against her husband, primarily that he is too unqualified by laying out all the experience he’s had through his community organizing and state senate service. She echoed the campaign’s common themes of hope and change achieved through some level of sacrifice by telling of her own family’s experience of a father who worked a blue collar job, her stay at home mom and how they put two kids through Princeton. “A man like my father, of simple means, could send two kids to Princeton.”

She didn’t take questions, though she spoke with many people as they moved toward her to shake her hand and pose for pictures. When we made it to her we mentioned we were here from the Daily Princetonian, and her response was “Yeah Tigers!” accompanied by a high five.

Hillary Rallies Her Troops

2008-01-07T01:32:00.001-05:00

We initially thought that the most exciting part about New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s rally today was that it was 15 minutes away from our hotel and started at noon, meaning that we didn’t have to arrive get there until 10 a.m. and could finally get some rest. After returning to our hotel at midnight last night from a short Bill Richardson event and then writing up our posts, we were exhausted.

The line to gain entrance to the event had already formed when we arrived two hours ahead of time, and the Nashua North High School gym was already set up with a stage and the largest American flag I have ever seen. When we left for the Secret Service sweep the line stretched the length of the school.

Fitting given its location, the event opened like a sports game with a Clinton staffer warming up the crowd by throwing pom poms and shirts and holding a game of Hillary trivia. (Sample question: Where did Hillary Clinton attend law school? Yale. Boo.) The crowd of around 2,000 was very active, screaming loudly. Hillary arrived about an hour late, accompanied by her daughter. She went straight into her speech without being introduced.

Her speech addressed the issues of change and experience. She used the words change and changes more than 10 times in her prepared speech. The vast majority of her speech was devoted to the topic of healthcare, the issue that has become the defining policy question of the Democratic primary. She indirectly criticized the extent of Obama’s plan, alleging it would leave 15 million residents uninsured. In comparison she brought up her work on the Children’s Health Insurance Program to emphasize her understanding and experience with the issue.

She also took questions from the audience, but often it was difficult to hear the speaker. There were several about healthcare in addition to some about the environment and foreign policy. During the questions audience members in the previously at-capacity crowd streamed out, the first time I had seen such a response. The event was also the longest one we’ve attended at about 80 minutes of Clinton speaking.

Bill Hits The Bars

2008-01-07T00:53:00.000-05:00

As we left the Obama event, we learned from a handful of Hillary Clinton supporters walking along Plymouth’s Main Street that Bill Clinton would be greeting supporters at a nearby restaurant. We decided to check it out.

Arriving at 7:30 p.m., the former president was greeted by around 75 supporters in the basement of Lucky Dog Tavern. He took the microphone for almost an hour, stressing the importance of converting undecided voters and getting out the vote in Tuesday’s primary.

Clinton conceded that the Obama camp had done a better job of mobilizing young voters in Iowa but argued that his wife had the best plan for their future. He said that blunting Obama’s momentum from Iowa would be difficult, but that supporters could help the campaign by urging their friends to vote for the New York senator.

Obama '85 Makes Case to Plymouth

2008-01-07T00:48:00.000-05:00

After the Clinton event, we raced up Interstate 93 from Nashua to Plymouth, a small community about halfway up the state. There we found about 200 Granite Staters packed into the Obama campaign office waiting for Michelle Obama ’85. The event was originally scheduled as a “house party,” but unexpected interest in the event required a change in venue.

Obama spoke to supporters in the crowded basement for nearly an hour, and her comments covered a wide array of issues. She said we live in a “cynical and fearful world” and that she wanted to help create a world of hope and change for her daughters and all other young people in the country. She spoke of her own childhood, the hard work and sacrifice of her parents and how all Americans must be willing to sacrifice for one another and the country. She cautioned that, while an Obama presidency would bring change, America must understand that change is painful and takes effort, involvement and sacrifice on the part of every individual.

Afterwards Obama worked the room for almost half an hour, was thrilled to hear that a couple of 'Prince' reporters made the trip up to New Hampshire and made sure that her beloved Pyne and Patton Halls were still standing tall back on campus.

Hillary: "Ready for Change. Ready to Lead."

2008-01-07T00:41:00.000-05:00

We were back on the trail this morning, this time at a rally for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton at Nashua North High School. The event drew an enormous crowd, as literally thousands lined the sidewalk outside the school before the doors opened. Once inside, the campaign blared music from Bon Jovi, Rascal Flatts and others and threw out T-shirts during “Hillary Trivia” to keep supporters occupied for more than an hour.

Clinton arrived shortly after 1 p.m. with daughter Chelsea and immediately launched into a 40-minute stump speech that drew stark contrasts between her and frontrunner Sen. Barack Obama. Responding to Obama’s campaign themes of change and hope, Clinton said that hers is a record of action and not just words, and that both Obama and John Edwards had taken numerous positions in the last few years that did not represent change.

After her remarks, Clinton took more then 40 minutes of questions, no easy task considering the more than 2,000 supporters packed into the school’s gym, on everything from healthcare and education to social security, global warming and the war in Iraq. The 80-minute event was the longest of our trip, and attendees could be seen filing out of the gym well before it was over.

America's Most Influential Papers Converge

2008-01-06T02:49:00.000-05:00

'Prince' reporter Matt Westmoreland '10 made his way onto the front page of Saturday's New York Times ... with a little help from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Westmoreland, seen below in the bottom of the photo, was taking pictures of the Democratic frontrunner for the paper as he arrived at a Concord High School rally Friday morning.

Romney Raises the Bar (Scene)

2008-01-06T02:24:00.000-05:00

After finishing Saturday night's Republican debate on ABC, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney made his way to Varick's Sports Bar in downtown Manchester to meet with an energetic group of supporters.

More than 100 people packed into the small establishment just west of Elm Street to watch the 90-minute debate and cheer on their candidate during a post-debate rally. Romney and his wife Ann joined the group for about five minutes, thanking them for their support and predicting a victory on Tuesday, before leaving.

Working for the Votes: Richardson

2008-01-06T02:20:00.000-05:00

Bill Richardson’s Manchester field office is located in a strip mall about seven minutes from downtown Manchester. When we arrived about 50 volunteers, staffers and supporters had crowded into the largest of his three rooms to watch the New Mexico governor debate. Their ages were split, old supporters and young volunteers.

(Governor Bill Richardson, Jacob Aronson '11)

Jacob Aronson ’11, a Daily Princetonian copy staffer, was among the volunteers. He’s the one Princeton volunteer from the Pace program and has mostly spent his first few days calling voters around the state. However, at 2 a.m. Friday he joined other members of the Richardson team at the airport, greeting the governor as he arrived from Iowa.

Similarly, the entire group moved toward the door when Richardson arrived for a post-debate event. He made his way around the room, shaking everyone’s hand and thanking them for their support. A tired-looking Richardson then left without making a speech.

Huckabee: Two Slices To-Go

2008-01-06T02:15:00.000-05:00

Between the Edwards rally this morning and visiting Princeton students volunteering at campaign offices in Manchester, we decided to grab a quick bite to eat at Caesario's Pizza Parlor on Elm Street.

Less than five minutes after we arrived, two buses pulled up outside and the Huckabee for President contingent made its way inside. Though the former Arkansas governor and winner of the Iowa Caucus did not take any press questions (and we tried...), he enjoyed finding another Southerner here in the Granite State when he learned I was from Georgia.

"They don't have any grits up here," he lamented. "Let me know if you find a place that has any."

Working for the Votes: Obama

2008-01-06T01:55:00.000-05:00

The Obama for America headquarters seemed large and busy as easily 100 people worked on assembling groups to go out canvassing or to provide visibility, which means to stand on the side of the road and hold a sign supporting the candidate. The colors inside were bright and the volunteers were young.

There we met Toni De Mello GS and Melody Chan GS, who we followed as they canvassed to see the typical work of campaign volunteers. They drove out to Bedford, N.H., which looked typically New England from its white First Congregational Church to the snow on the ground. The snow is what causes the most problems for the canvassers. It’s difficult to walk from house to house. It was later in the afternoon and the pair had a Princeton car, so they drove instead.

They stopped at a home and rang the doorbell. While we were with them we saw them arrive at homes where no one was home, while another time they disappeared into the house to speak with a man for a good 20 minutes and try to answer any questions he had about Obama’s policies, and finally, another person announced that he had decided to vote for Obama. That was their favorite.

Edwards Takes Political Shots in Concord

2008-01-06T01:53:00.000-05:00

We entered an empty Bektash Temple Hall this morning when we arrived for a John Edwards rally in the Concord auditorium. But when the Edwards family arrived shortly before 11 a.m., more than 400 people had crammed into a town-hall space designed to hold only half that. Volunteers lined the room's walls with gray folding chairs as the crowd waited patiently for the tardy candidate. The crowd was an even mixture of all ages and both genders, contrasting it with the young and mainly female crowd at the Obama rally, and the much older and predominantely male group at McCain's town-hall meeting.

The former North Carolina senator was introduced by his wife Elizabeth Edwards, and his three children Cate '04, Jack (above) and Emma Claire were on hand, as were the 2004 vice-presidential nominee's parents.

Each event we've attended in New Hampshire has been markedly different, and Edwards' was no exception. Obama had his 2,000 supporters crowded around a full stage. McCain stood on large black riser against one wall of VFW 5791. Edwards, in contrast, had nothing. Surrounded entirely by voters, Edwards stood on the floor for more than hour throughout his 30-minute speech and the Q&A session that followeed.

Edwards' remarks focused mainly on domestic policy, including his plan to bring about universal health care and his strong beliefs on ending what he called corporate America's grip on the people's government. Edwards also urged a quick end to the war in Iraq and stressed his experience in foreign policy to show his readiness to deal with issues like Iran, Pakistan, Russia and nuclear proliferation.

2008-01-06T01:24:00.000-05:00

Gibson '65 Moderates First Post-Iowa Debates

ABC anchor Charlie Gibson moderated debates between the leading Democratic and Republican presidential candidates Saturday night just two days before New Hampshire voters go to the polls.

The Republican forum included Iowa Caucus winner and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

Shortly after their 90-minute exchange, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson took part in the Democratic debate. Both were held at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H.

Three candidates were kept out of the debate: Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Alaska Gov. Mike Gravel, both Democrats, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, a Republican. ABC narrowed the field by requiring that participants meet at least one of three criteria: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys.

Tomorrow evening, Fox News will hold a debate for Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson and McCain. Paul and Hunter were not invited.

Working for the Votes: Kucinich

2008-01-06T01:03:00.000-05:00

Campaign signs blanket Elm Street, Manchester’s Main Street, often accompanied by volunteers shouting slogans. Most of the campaigns' state headquarters are located on or nearby Elm, making it the locus of campaign activity. Even just going about normal business doesn’t insulate you from the events. Matt and I had just ordered our lunch when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and his campaign chose our restaurant as the site for a meet and greet.

The building at 786 Elm is the headquarters of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, where Michael Collins ’11, a Daily Princetonian staff photographer, is working through the Pace Civic Engagement Program. His job has kept him out of the cold; he's compiling maps for the volunteers who will be canvassing. He’s one of about 20 volunteers who work out of a two-room second-floor apartment. The restaurant below, which is known for hosting candidates who want to look just like regular people, is more of a draw than their small workplace.

It looks a bit like a sparse dorm room after another roommate has moved away. There are bits of trash on the floor and empty wall space where the staff hasn’t taped up campaign signs. One room has two mattresses sitting flush with the ground and a bunk bed. Guests sit on a bench seat that looks like it was taken from a car.

A large group of volunteers stood at the corner of Elm, chanting and waving their “Kucinich for President” signs. On the other side of the crossroad a smattering of Ron Paul and Hillary Clinton supporters gathered, while a McCain group marched back and forth on the other side of Elm Street. Cars drive through this election gauntlet and occasionally honk, drawing excited cheers.

2008-01-06T00:38:00.000-05:00

Breaking News: Bradley '65 to endorse Obama

ABC News reported late Saturday night that former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley '65 will endorse Illinois Sen. Barack Obama on Monday in his quest for the Democratic nomination.

An Obama campaign staffer confirmed the endorsement on the condition of anonymity.

A source close to the former Princeton basketball star told ABC the NBA hall of famer waited to endorse Obama until after the Iowa Caucus because he wanted to see how former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards finished. Edwards' 30 percent in last Thursday's contest was second to Obama's 38 percent. The 2004 vice presidential candidate narrowly beat out New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who finished third with 29 percent.

Bradley ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2000, losing to former Vice President Al Gore. Bradley lost to Gore 50 percent-46 percent in that year's New Hampshire Democratic Primary.

Our Tentative Schedule

2008-01-05T00:53:00.000-05:00

Friday, Jan. 4:
- Barack Obama rally at Concord High School, Concord (12:30 p.m.)
- John McCain town hall meeting at VFW Post 5791, Hudson (6 p.m.)

Saturday, Jan. 5:
- John Edwards rally at Bektash Temple Hall, Concord (10:15 a.m.)
- Mitt Romney post-debate rally at Varick's Sports Bar, Manchester (9:15 a.m.)

Sunday, Jan. 6:
- Hillary Clinton rally at Nashua North High School, Nashua (Noon)

Monday, Jan. 7:
- Mike Huckabee rally at Barley House, Concord (Noon)
- Bill Richardson rally at Franco-American Centre, Manchester (6 p.m.)

Tuesday, Jan. 8:
- The New Hampshire Primary

Covering New Hampshire: An Introduction

2008-01-05T00:51:00.000-05:00

It’s a five-day firestorm, a political junkie’s paradise. A dozen candidates from both major political parties descended on New Hampshire today as the state prepares for the nation’s first presidential primary on Tuesday, Jan. 8. And we decided to tag along. Over the next several days we will traverse the Granite State ’s snow-covered roads to cover candidates from both sides of the aisle, as well as the student volunteers and alumni who support them.

Following a disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the first candidate on the ground, holding a 2 a.m. arrival rally in Portsmouth. After Romney lost to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 34 percent-25 percent, in Iowa, New Hampshire is seen as a must-win for a Romney campaign that must now contend with surging Arizona Sen. John McCain. On the Democratic front, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s first-place finish in the Caucus positioned the first-term member of Congress as the frontrunner in the upcoming battle with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. The two finished second and third, respectively, in the Caucus, and each must work to stop Obama’s momentum before Tuesday’s voting.

Luckily they don’t have to do it alone, and a handful of Tigers have offered to lend a hand. In addition to students that came up on their own, more than 20 Princeton students, spread across six campaigns (five Democratic, one Republican), arrived in New Hampshire yesterday in a trip organized by the Pace Center program for Civic Engagement Learning. Between now and Tuesday, some of them will log 20-hour days as they give all they’ve got to the candidate of their choice. The race is on, and it’s a sprint to the finish.

Day One

2008-01-04T23:08:00.000-05:00

Friday, the first day after the Iowa Caucus awarded first place to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, we arrived in New Hampshire. Our plan for the day was a lunchtime rally for Obama and and an evening town hall meeting for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

We arrived Concord High School two hours early while a combination of Obama staffers, volunteers and students set up the site. The school was well prepared for the influx of visitors; Obama is the 11th 2008 presidential candidate to hold an event there.

Obama arrived an hour after the doors opened, and the packed gym waited listening to songs piped in through large speakers set around the perimeter of the room. After introductions, Obama himself entered to Clocks, by Coldplay, while the crowd cheered loudly.

Obama spoke for about half an hour, focusing his attention on hope, as well as the need and the sacrifices required for change. "In four days" was his refrain, reminding the audience, about a quarter of whom indicated they were undecided, to vote for him in the primary.

Obama's promises to end the war in Iraq, intervene in Darfur and establish universal health care received the biggest applause. He repeatedly stressed the immediacy of the need for change. "Young people answered the call yesterday, all across Iowa," he said, noting the huge increase in under-30 involvement in the caucuses. The audience had a significant number of students from Concord High, which was in session, but also a significant number of young people traveled specifically to the event. The average age was definitely skewed to under 40.

"Let's get to work," concluded Obama amid loud cheers. Afterwards he worked his way down the crowd, stopping to talk to fans and interested voters along the way. About half of the 1,500 to 2,000 people who attended waited to try to move in close to the senator. Many just wanted to shake his hand and listened to music by Kenny Chesney, Paul Simon, Aretha Franklin, Steve Wonder and John Mayer while they waited for the opportunity.

Joining the audience was a large press corps including reporters and photographers from many national and international organizations, though Obama did not take any questions from the press.

Afterwards we drove south to McCain's event located in Hudson, N.H., at VFW Post 5791. The audience at the McCain event was noticeably older and whiter and predominantly male. This may be attributed to the fact that it was held in a VFW. About 400 people attended, filling every chair and the standing room. Instead of just prepared remarks, like the Obama rally, McCain began by addressing climate change, Iraq and Washington corruption and then opened the floor to questions.

Much of the conversation revolved around the military. Talk about Iraq, the Veteran's Administration and even the jokes referenced McCain's time in the service. Many veterans attended the event, as did some of McCain's friends from his own time in the military. Senator Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, joined the audience as well. The event itself began with a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance.

McCain addressed both those attending and the press afterwards before driving away on his "Straight Talk Express."

(Matt Westmoreland '10 (l.), Arizona Senator John McCain (c.), Kate Benner '10)

Reporting from New Hampshire

2008-01-04T23:01:00.000-05:00

Starting today and in the week leading up to the New Hampshire primaries, two reporters for The Daily Princetonian will be on the ground criss-crossing the Granite State as the nation turns its attention toward pivotal contests in both parties. Staff Writers Matt Westmoreland '10 and Kate Benner '10 will report on the campaigns with a Princetonian angle, meeting with students volunteering for campaigns and alumni working on the trail or taking part in the primaries. We welcome your comments and discussion of the campaigns and our posts and photographs.

--Michael Shapiro '09, Executive Editor for Web

Final results (except the recounts!)

2006-11-08T08:28:00.000-05:00

As of 8:21, it seems like the Democrats will have a majority in both houses of congress. In the three key Senate battles, Claire McCaskill has a 42,000 vote advantage, Jon Tester has a 1586 vote edge, and Jim Webb has a periously close 7,800 vote cushion. I think that what I said about Bush and executive power will still hold true, albeit to a lesser extent. A united congress will be something of a check, but I think we'll be seeing a lot of signing statements and ignored laws to the detriment of our democracy. One other prediction about the Senate: Joe Lieberman is suddenly going to become an extremely popular man. There are going to be a lot of Democrats (Kennedy, Kerry, Dodd especially) telling him, "You know I was just kidding with that whole Lamont thing, right Joe? Come on, don't look at me like that!"

Let's take a closer look at the house. Going by the results on CNN.com for every race, I found 13 out of the 14 races that haven't officially been called yet. In these, the Republican currently leads in 8 (albeit by narrow margins) and the Democrat leads in 5. If those results held, it would give a swing of 33 seats towards the Democrats. This is a phenomenal result for the boys in blue, but it could have been a lot bigger. Last night when presenting my "49% Doctrine," I suggested that the Democrats picked off the really vulnerable republican incumbents based solely on the anti-Bush mood but couldn't sweep the board without a positive national message, a la the Contract with America. I said at the time that I thought the Dems could easily have picked up another 12-15 seats by running on more than the fact that they aren't Republicans. I was right.

Looking through all the races in the House, I was able to find what I considered the 25 closest races. I tried to limit this to contests where the margin of victory, or current lead in undecided contests, was within 4 points. This is that next tier of contests, the group that would have fallen during a political earthquake. The Repbulicans won 16 of these 25 races (Fl-13, CT-04, Il-06, NV-03 NM-01, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-06, VA-02, WA-08, and WY-AL), and thanks to that showing the GOP remain competitive in the House. On a night when nationally the GOP got hammered, the Democrats were just barely too weak to run the table. Just to be clear, we're talking about 100,000 votes nationally being the difference between a great year and a legendary triumph. I am and will continue to be convinced that any nationalized message in addition to "Bush sucks" would have given the Dems most if not all of these seats (and a couple others, too) for a net gain of something like 45-50 seats.

That will be all for me. Thanks for coming along for the ride,

--Barry Caro

Republican hopes

2006-11-08T00:35:00.000-05:00

While Republicans across the country are groaning over the loss of the House and the possible future loss of the Senate, there are still reasons for them to hope. Alex Maugeri '07, president of Princeton College Republicans, says that this is a great opportunity for the party to refocus. “This is what happens," he says, "when Republicans move away from their values. It’s a time for the Republicans to regroup, and a time for the Democrats to stumble.”

For whatever problems the Republicans are encountering now, there is no question that the Democrats' reign in the House of Representatives will not be easy. Future Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's position is "impossible," says Maugeri, also a 'Prince' editor. Many congressmen who picked up seats (Casey Jr., Lieberman, etc.) are "Democrats who aren't being Democrats," Maugeri said, holding several traditionally Republican values.

"This isn’t a governing coalition. The far left of the Democratic party has been totally repudiated and as a result I think the Democrats are going to have a very hard time governing and this bodes well for a 2008 presidential bid.”

This election is already being compared to the 1994 Republican sweep. But Maugeri says that similarities are not as perfect as Democrats would like. "Incumbents who lost seats were victims of wave of anti-war sentiment, which is not a governing philosophy. That’s what so different from 1994.”

Even Cindy Hong, Princeton College Democrats campaign chairman, agrees. "The election is more of a reaction against Republicans than a mandate for Democratic values," she says, based on a single issue:

Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.

-- Rachel Dunn in Frist Campus Center

The Senate: Back in play

2006-11-08T00:17:00.000-05:00

Ok, so I'm gonna have to eat my words from a little while ago, but it looks like the Dems may have a chance at getting the Senate after all. A slim chance. Webb looks like he may be victorious after all (we'll have a recount for sure) and Tester is beating Burns, but it's still early out West. MD looks like it will narrowly stay blue after all. That means the Dems need to come from behind in either TN or MO and hold their narrow leads everywhere else. Is that likely? Probably not. But it is still possible.

In the House, the Republicans seem to have avoided a total meltdown. With 99% of the votes counted, they held 3 out of the 6 most vulnerable seats in NY. They're leading in two out of the three in CT. They held one of two in KY, and three of five in OH. This kept a bad night from turning into a 1994 style fiasco.

The reason for this is something I call the "49% doctrine." This is the idea that pure opposition can only get you to 49%, but that a majority requires some sort of positive agenda. Of the seats I mention above, the Republicans held eight of them by no more than 52-48 (NY-25, -26, -29, CT-02, -04, OH-01, -02, and -15). Of the six races the Democrat's won or are winning, only one is that close (NY-19). This means that the Republicans nearly swept all the really close races.

The Democrats succeeded in picking off the wink links, but weren't quite strong enough to defeat the next tier of opponents. I'm convinced that with any kind of positive national platform, those numbers would be reversed and the Democrats would be looking at a much larger House majority, probably on the order of 12-15 seats bigger. That would have made this a historic blowout, instead of a major victory.

--Barry Caro

Hard work, vision and frothy mixtures

2006-11-07T23:56:00.000-05:00

John Kerry has just made a speech from Massachusetts, where he's been campaigning for incumbent Democrat Sen. Edward Kennedy. "Whether you're rich or poor, you can be sure that America is a place where hard work and vision mean you can realize your dreams," he says.

"And privilege!" calls out a frustrated grad student, Mai Hariu.

Ah yes, hard work and vision ... unless you're one of those kids that didn't study hard and ended up in Iraq instead.

Mark Christopher GS has his feet up in the graduate lounge of the Wilson school, where a bunch of MPA students are watching the results roll in and hurling jibes at the TV screen. Mark is fairly happy with the results so far.

"I'm not a big fan of that whole project Lieberman," he says. "I'm thrilled that Tom DeLay's seat looks like it's going to a Democrat. And I love the fact that Santorum got his ass kicked by Casey."

Mark then told me a little story about controversial arch-conservative Santorum, which I'd also heard earlier in the evening from Arielle Lutwick GS, the Democrat poll monitor. Many of you may know it already, but it was news to me as a Brit and to others in the room, so why not share it, since we're here for an evening of politico fun?

Back in 2003, Santorum compared states' rights to legislate on consensual homosexuality with their right to regulate bestiality or pedophilia. Openly gay newspaper columnist Dan Savage, who writes a column called Savage Love (syndicated by a variety of newspapers and The Onion), thought he'd get his own back. So he organized a reader competition to come up with a new sex-related term for "Santorum" that meant something other than the good Senator's name. The winning answer makes me blush, so I won't repeat it, but you can read it for yourself here.

I'll never look at Santorum in the same way again.

--Victoria Whitford

Menendez celebrates victory

2006-11-07T23:47:00.000-05:00

The subdued excitement that had pervaded the Grand Ballroom all night suddenly and loudly gave way to joyful exuberance as Menendez supporters raised their placards in the air and shouted at the top of their lungs upon hearing of Tom Kean, Jr.'s concession of the Senate race. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine took the stage minutes later and addressed the gathered crowd. "New Jersey chose well, and I am proud of you," he said, introducing Menendez minutes later along with the candidate's two children and Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Taking the stage, Menendez opened with a long string of "thank yous," waved at the crowd and even jumped in the air to celebrate his victory. "I have walked by faith and not by sight," he said, referring to his belief that he would emerge victorious despite close polls and predictions otherwise by commentators.

"A few minutes ago, I received a call from Tom Kean, Jr., who conceded the election," Menendez told his assembled supporters, who erupted into simultaneous booing that nearly equaled the earlier cheering in volume and intensity.

Addressing his supporters, his opponents and "especially those who didn't vote at all," Menendez promised to wake up every morning with the intent to "fight for what is right for the people of New Jersey." Turning to Corzine, he said, "it's your victory," as Corzine had originally selected Menendez to fill his Senate seat upon ascending to the state governorship.

As the crowd continued to cheer, Menendez reiterated his key talking points, namely his opposition to President Bush on the war and on domestic issues, his stance against "justices who would have voted against a woman's right to choose" and his refusal to shift with political opinion.

"I didn't wait to see which way the political winds were blowing," he said, "and I never will."

Menendez then went on to deliver the beginning of his speech again in Spanish, to tremendous applause and, eventually, unison cries of "si se puede" (yes it is possible).

He and Corzine then descended from the stage and shook hands with the supporters crowding around the platform.

Earlier in the night, Menendez supporters had cheered loudly when a staffer projected upon the wall USA Today's online edition declaring him victorious. New Jersey ex-governor Jim Florio walked past soon afterward, declaring "tonight's the night, and an early night!" However, the crowd died down, earnestly awaiting the official announcement of Kean's concession.

-- Jonathan Zebrowski, in East Brunswick at the Menendez victory celebration

Webb Closes!

2006-11-07T23:38:00.000-05:00

Half the Richmond City precincts came in -- Webb within 5k!

-- Mark Salzman

VA, TN, and MD update

2006-11-07T23:36:00.000-05:00

If I ever gave the impression that VA is over, I apologize, because it clearly isn't. Allen leads by about 4,700 votes with about 2.5% of precincts still to report their totals. If you'll recall, I picked Webb to win this one and said that this would be a painfully close race. The outcome could easily be decided by less than 1000 votes, or perhaps less than 100.

Again, not to suggest that anything is over, but TN is looking like a win for the GOP. Corker leads by 3% with around 90% of precincts reporting.

MD seems to have been something of a polling disaster. With 50% of votes counted, Michael Steele (R) continues to lead Ben Cardin by a 2% margin. That state has been called for the Democrats. The Governor's race, which has also been called for the Democrats, is actually sporting a 5% Republican lead. This state was supposed to be a blowout. It isn't. Maryland and Virginia will be keeping us up late.

These races are all extremely close. They are not decided by any means, but the Republican currently leads in all of them.

UPDATE: Maryland has now put Cardin narrowly ahead, but the GOP candidate for Gov still leads with 57% results.

--Barry Caro

Don't count your chickens, Barry

2006-11-07T23:30:00.000-05:00

Webb has closed to within 8,000 with 97% reporting. But look at the breakdown by precinct: With 78 precincts still to report, 74 come from counties that have gone for Webb. This includes three in populous Fairfax, one in Arlington (that goes for Webb 3-1), two each in Newport News and Norfolk City and a whopping 18 in Richmond City.

I think Webb can pull this out.

And as far as Maryland is concerned, the only reasons Steele looks like he's still in this is because the Democratic precincts haven't come in yet.

-- Mark Salzman

Executive power and a divided congress

2006-11-07T23:19:00.000-05:00

In my previous post I mentioned that I thought that a divided legislative branch would have the effect of strengthening President Bush. The president has shown an alarming capacity to ignore laws he doesn't like. That tendency, worrisome with a tamed Republican congress, is downright scary when Bush has an incentive to ignore his opponents.

A divided Congress would also produce legislative gridlock. If the House and Senate can't reach agreement, then the President will likely act without waiting for their decisions. Therefore, I'd expect that we would see an expansion of executive privelige over the next two years and not a slowdown of growth. This isn't what a lot of people, myself included, would like to see happen.

--Barry Caro

Steele leads; Allen up by 13,000

2006-11-07T23:01:00.000-05:00

The Dems will take the House. It's all but official at this point. The only question is whether they have a sizeable majority or not.

The Senate will stay Republican. Allen leads by 13,200 votes with 95.6% of precincts reporting. Steel leads in Maryland by 11,000 votes with 38% reporting. Corker leads Ford by 65,000 votes with 74% reporting. Talent's lead has narrowed to 6% in MO.

What does this portend for the next two years? Chaos and stagnation. Neither side looks to have a dominant hold on Congress, so the one consequence could be a further expansion of executive power. More on that in a second.

--Barry Caro

VA to be closer still

2006-11-07T23:00:00.000-05:00

Following up on Barry's post, watch VA to narrow beyond what CNN is reporting. The three largest counties with precincts still to report, Fairfax, Norfolk and Richmond, all go overwhelmingly for Webb. Once those come in, especially Richmond, Allen's lead is going to evaporate.

-- Mark Salzman

Hold on in VA

2006-11-07T22:44:00.000-05:00

Webb has climbed within 12,000 votes with just under 6% left to be counted. This race has tightened significantly in a very short amount of time. The Republicans are not out of the woods quite yet.

UPDATE: Michael Steele is within 5,000 votes and one percent in Maryland 1/3 of the way through. This race is not yet safe for Cardin at this point.

--Barry Caro

Menendez delivers victory speech

2006-11-07T22:29:00.001-05:00

Menendez in victory speach says Kean has called him to concede. Says that, "I understand that I am a new face to most of the people of this great state, but everyone in New Jersey should know this about me: Every single hour, of every single day for the next six years, I will dedicate myself to earning your strust and makign you proud."

-- Chan Sethi

Kean concedes

2006-11-07T22:29:00.000-05:00

Republican Tom Kean, Jr. has conceded the Senate race.

-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign

Not yet time to celebrate

2006-11-07T22:16:00.000-05:00

I'm in the Rockefeller common room right now, and there is growing optimism among my Democratic friends. I think this is at least premature, and possibly misplaced. Here's why:

1) Senate control is far from secure. The Dems have picked off all the low hanging fruit but haven't cracked the tough nuts. The GOP built a firewall around VA, MO, and TN, and is leading in all three. Their lead is currently 10 in MO and 5 in TN. With almost all the votes counted in VA, Allen appears to have eked out a narrow victory. If the Dems lose all three, the best they can legitimtaely hope for is 49 seats, and that requires Burns to lose.

2) Targeted House races are not going overwhelmingly Democratic and are still neck and neck. Heck, even Mark Foley's seat is still within 1000 votes, and no one expected the Republicans to hold that one. While the Dems may win all the tossups, that is by no means assured. We have a long night in front of us people, and nothing is decided yet.

--Barry Caro

Victory in Sleepy Hollow

2006-11-07T22:13:00.000-05:00

There's a genteel buzz to the Democrats victory party at Conte's pizzeria in Princeton. Although CNN is calling for Menendez, there are no champagne corks popping. Rather the news is suffusing this crowd with a warm glow, as is the fine wine they're drinking on this chilly November evening.

The township's votes are being tallied on a whiteboard. It's clear that Princeton is a solidly Democratic town. Ruth Miller, a retiree who enjoying the party for the party, is laughing at the result for one of the Districts. "29 votes for Kean? That's 29 more than he deserved!"

Chad Goerner, a fresh-faced young Democrat and consultant at Merrill Lynch, is looking pretty happy - he's just been voted in as chair of Princeton Township Democratic Committee, one of the many side-races happening in this election. He tells me that the 8th District in Princeton has tended to be more Republican in the past, but this time Menendez has 314 votes to Kean's 248. One polling station is hardly representative of the entire State, I hear you object. "But it's a good sign that we've been able to get the township's Democratic grassroots out to vote", says Goerner.

Arielle Lutwick GS, a poll monitor for the Democrats, has just rushed in her poll results from Princeton Township's 12th District, where she's spent the day observing and getting on the phone to students who failed to get out of bed for the election.

I watched the polls close with her over at the 12th District's polling station in Jadwin, the physics lab. Compared to previous elections I've observed -- in Kosovo, Macedonia and Iraq -- American democracy is looking decidedly, wonderfully sleepy. There are no armed men wearing balaclavas, just fine upstanding citizens Paul Andersen '79 and George Hansen (Democrat and Republican respectively) manning the desk and explaining to confused undergrads how to fill in a provisional ballot. So far, so good.

-- Victoria Whitford

Kean said to concede soon, Nancy Johnson (R-CT) Defeated

2006-11-07T22:09:00.000-05:00

A member of the press just walked by and told me that she had heard that Kean would soon give a concession speech.

In a update from my home district in Connecticut, according to contacts in the state, Democratic challenger Chris Murphy unseated long time incumbent Nancy Johnson.

--Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater

E-vote problems reported

2006-11-07T21:50:00.000-05:00

The AP is reporting that problems with electronic voting machines have forced some poll workers to switch to paper ballots. CNN is also now reporting that in Pennsylvania, some e-voting machines were recording votes differently from what voters intended. The Pennsylvania secretary of state is talking about potential "undervoting." Though they're no reports of explicit machine manipulation, Princeton's own Ed Felten had warned of such problems.

-- Chan Sethi

Waiting continues at Kean headquarters

2006-11-07T21:38:00.000-05:00

Waiting continues at the Kean campaign, while results continue to stream in from the large television, as well as blackberries and phones. The main campaign staff seem not to have left the "war room" as of yet, where one representative said they are waiting to hear from their workers stationed where the ballots are being counted. At this point, the assembled friends and workers are conversing and having cocktails, interspersed with tense conversations about other races across the country. As for the past two hours, press and campaign staff continually ask eachother what the latest news is from key races in other states.

--Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater

A Democratic Presence

2006-11-07T21:34:00.000-05:00

If wild whoops and enthusiastic applause are any indication of party affiliation, the Democrats have a strong presence here at Frist. Ben Cardin and Casey Jr. received the loudest cheers yet when their projected wins were announced. Mixed reaction to Joe Lieberman—“I hate you, Connecticut!” definitely echoed from Democratic mouths—but blue is definitely the color of choice.

“It’s not surprising," College Democrats campaign coordinator Cindy Hong '09 responded, "because this campus is overwhelmingly Democratic, despite popular perceptions." She also told me that Democrats may have been more likely to show up to the party here because of hopes of flipping the House and Senate.

But Hong doesn't expect both houses to flip. “I think the House will [flip] and hopefully Pelosi will become the speaker. In the Senate, I think we’ll take four. We might not win Virginia…and Missouri is shaky as well. Obviously I want them to win.”

Democrats on campus may also have contributed to the New Jersey win. The College Democrats, several of whom were working at polling stations, saw 289 people register for District 1, most of them students. Of those votes, the ratio of Menendez votes to Kean Jr. votes was 4:1, Hong said.

But the Democrats are doing well around the country, having yet to lose an incumbent seat.
“I think it’s great," Hong said. But..."We don’t like to count our chickens before they’re hatched.”

--Rachel Dunn, Frist

Insiders report Allen campaign confident

2006-11-07T21:33:00.000-05:00

A Kean representative with a blackberry in touch with other campaigns across the country just told me that "the Allen campaign is confident, and ahead by two points with most of Northern Virginia reporting." Northern Virginia is a typically Democratic area.

-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign

Three big wins for the Dems?

2006-11-07T21:31:00.000-05:00

One is for sure. In KY-03, Republican Anne Northup narrowly lost to John Yarmouth. This is one of those bellweather races that could indicate the larger direction of the race. Now that the Dems have won it, Nancy Pelosi can start to breathe a little easier.

In Maryland, most of the networks are calling Ben Cardin the winner. The early results have Steele up, so exit polling must be really extreme here.

In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse is also looking victorious. This would be pickup number 3 in the Senate, but would not be that surprising.

In short, the Dems are looking good right now, but it will still come down to MO, VA, TN, and MT for Senate control.

--Barry Caro

Eliot Spitzer '81 wins New York

2006-11-07T21:23:00.000-05:00

CNN is projecting that Eliot Spitzer '81, with 79 percent of the vote, has handily defeated Republican opponent John Fasco. Quite the shocker.

-- Chan Sethi

JOEMENTUM!!!!

2006-11-07T21:19:00.000-05:00

Joesph Lieberman has survived the Netroots assault to defeat Ned Lamont. His apparent margin of victory does not bode well for Democratic House challengers like Diane Farrell, and that is a bad sign nationally for Democrats.

--Barry Caro

More results in, Menendez still ahead

2006-11-07T21:11:00.000-05:00

David Norcross, who wears a yellow "War Room" tag and checks his blackberry every few minutes, says that "exit pollers are making some calls, but they're unreliable, I remember in 2004 they predicted Kerry would win." The most recent results show Menendez with a 52-46 lead (somehow) with 25 percent of precincts reporting.

-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign

Dems pick up the easy ones ...

2006-11-07T21:05:00.000-05:00

Now comes the hard part. The GOP gave up on Ohio and Pennsylvania a long time ago, so I'm a little confused as to why CNN is treating the loss of Ohio as an apocalypse for the GOP. I don't think that a single conservative pundit picked DeWine to win. The only surprise would have been if the Democrats couldn't win this one, in which case I think there would have been very good reason to believe in a massive conspiracy theory. Still, the Dems are closer to 51 than they were yesterday, so it is a necessary victory for them.

In other news, no tossup house races have been called yet, so I have no feel for what the margin there will be.

--Barry Caro

Menendez supporters react to announcement

2006-11-07T21:02:00.000-05:00

With several television channels and the Associated Press newswires having called the race for Menendez, there is surprisingly little reaction from the assembled supporters. As only about 7 percent of votes have actually been counted, the prediction is based on statistical analysis of exit polls, which leaves some in the room still skeptical while others smile widely.

"It is what it is," Democratic New Jersey Senate president Dick Codey said of the announcement. "They've only been wrong once [in the Florida election]."

When asked why Menendez should be re-elected, Codey glanced at the television screen as he said "He already was. He's the best candidate."

"Tom didn't define himself," Codey added. "This is a Democratic state, and they voted the traditional way."

Some still feel the election may be too close to call, like Robert Polakowski, vice president of the Association of Independent College and Universities in New Jersey, an organization of which Princeton is a member.

"We've been here before," Polakowski said, referring to close races and recounts. A veteran of the electoral process, having worked on campaigns for over twenty years, he still remained optimistic and confident in Menendez's eventual victory. "Tom Kean has name recognition, but he doesn't have the same experience as Bob Menendez," Polakowski said. "I think experience wins tonight, and Tom Jr. may have his day another day."

-- Jonathan Zebrowski, in East Brunwick with the Menendez campaign

Kean faithful remain hopeful despite predictions

2006-11-07T20:51:00.000-05:00

Kean supporters are having tense discussions as results begin to come in. One staff member said that Kean is up 51 percentage points to 49, with 7 percent of precincts reporting. As one press member said to the group of Kean supporters, "three networks have called it for Menendez," the response was that it is too early to tell. Next to me, a reporter looking at an exit poll from CNN says that Menendez carried both women and men, while Kean won 49 percent of the caucasian vote.

-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign

Menendez takes Jersey

2006-11-07T20:45:00.001-05:00

CNN just called New Jersey for Sen. Bob Menendez. I'll leave it to my colleagues at the campaigns to discuss this one.

--Barry Caro

CBS Calls Menendez?

2006-11-07T20:45:00.000-05:00

A press member just walked by and said that CBS has called the race for Robert Menendez. The campaign workers near me say "still a little early."

--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater

Anticipation growing in East Brunswick

2006-11-07T20:29:00.000-05:00

The close of polls in New Jersey has come and gone and, like at the Kean campaign, the excitement hasn't particularly picked up as results have yet to start streaming in. The crowd continues to grow as bystanders form circles to discuss the importance of a Democratic takeover of the House or the Senate and occasionally let out a small cheer for announcements of Democratic victories in other states.

One level downstairs, the same mood pervades the Rush Holt campaign celebration, with eager and animated supporters coming in through the doors. Holt faces Republican challenger Joseph Sinagra, though the Democrat has a comfortable lead in the polls.

--Jonathan Zebrowski in East Brunswick

Princeton voting

2006-11-07T20:28:00.001-05:00

The volume has been turned up, the balloons (both red and blue) have been tied up, fake dollar bills have been passed out, and the beverages have been placed on the table. Yep, it's official: the Princeton Frist election watch has begun.

While returns are coming in around the country, P-Votes co-chair Kris Ekdahl '07 has high hopes for Princeton voter turnout. "Overall, it's been a pretty good day for us," he told me. People seemed really excited about the election in general, he said. The most common reaction to all the P-Vote registration and get-out-to-vote initiatives? "Oh, shoot, I forgot to vote. How late are the polls open?" Let's hope that the pizza and doughnuts in the U-Store courtyard and the P-Vote t-shirts helped with memory loss.

Unfortunately, there's no real way to know for sure. P-Votes has decided that it is more labor-effective to convince people to vote rather than conduct exit polls or work at the polling stations themselves. Nevertheless, the four people behind me cheering at Menendez's victory may just have helped give him the seat.

--Rachel Dunn from Frist election watch

Tiger amongst Elephants

2006-11-07T20:28:00.000-05:00

Members of the Kean Campaign have started filing into the main room, including Kean himself, as everyone is waiting for results. Campaign workers ask the press what they've heard, and vice versa, while everyone checks Web sites. One campaign worker told me that he and a partner put fliers on 5,000 cars this morning. Although some hope to get results within fifteen or twenty minutes, the the gathering group must be content to wait patiently.

--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater

Polls close in New Jersey

2006-11-07T20:06:00.000-05:00

The closing of the polls, at 8:00 p.m., has come and gone with little change in activity at Kean campaign headquarters. While a large group of press fills the rear of the main room, and bartenders serve occasional drinks to the media crowd, few campaign officials are present in the room at this time. Nearby one reporter says "now the waiting game begins," as the stage at the front of the room remains, for a time, empty. Kean officials wearing yellow badges emblazoned with "War Room" continue to mill about. One official was just interviewed about the allegations of voting fraud, contained in a post below, and said that the reports were "bad stuff."

The big question is this: Will the Kean campaign have reason to party tonight?

-- Mike Shapiro

More exit polling musings

2006-11-07T19:52:00.000-05:00

In three governor's races where the incumbent was about 20 points ahead coming into today, exit polling apparently has the race as a dead heat. So again, take all numbers with a pound of salt. BTW, the bellweather house races in Kentucky and Indiana are all too close to call, according to CNN. The Democrats need to win those if they are going to have more than a token House majority.

--Barry Caro

Virginia buzz

2006-11-07T19:42:00.000-05:00

The final exit polling in the Allen-Webb race apparently shows Webb ahead 50.5-48.5, which, if it holds, would essentially be the same as my 51-49 prediction. According to the same source, however, this is closer than it was in the "leaked polls" I was skeptical of earlier. If tht trend of late tightening continues, either Allen wins or Webb's margin will be painfully thin.

UPDATE: The corrected exit poll numbers actually give Webb a 51.1-47.9 advantage, though the overall trend is the same. The media is also not calling Ohio for Brown despite his holding a 16% lead in the exit polls. That should give you an idea of how much stock to put in exit polling.

--Barry Caro

Campus interest burgeoning at Frist?

2006-11-07T19:23:00.000-05:00

Polls have just closed in Virginia, a closely-watched and supposedly keystone election, and excitement is filling the air at Frist ... not. Though formal parties and election watches have yet to begin, the sports TV has more significantly more viewers than the one centered on the election. People are sidling in with their takeout food and their laptops, but few have their attention focused on the TV screen. Indeed, it is so quiet at the CNN TV that captions are not even needed; the reporter is perfectly audible. It looks like problem sets are the rule of the day thus far.

--Rachel Dunn

Allegations of voting fraud in New Jersey

2006-11-07T19:17:00.000-05:00

A reporter for Fox news just said that allegations of some sort of voter fraud have come from five counties in New Jersey. Allegedly, around twenty voters entered voting booths which had the name of Robert Menendez, Kean’s opponent, already lit up as the selected candidate.

-- Mike Shapiro

Anticipation at Menendez headquarters

2006-11-07T19:10:00.000-05:00

With polls now closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, and with Sen. Menendez's event about to kick off shortly, the chatter in the room is excited and eager. Staffers and supporters alike are abuzz with results of preliminary exit polling, and the overall mood is optimistic.

As the press sets up and awaits the arrival of Menendez, Lautenberg, Corzine and company, campaign workers passing by shout to each other "We're going to do it!" and "Tonight's our night!" The stage is still empty, but the ever-increasing mass of people gathering in the reception area are talking more excitedly, especially about the Virginia Senate race that is as of yet too close to call.

With less than an hour before New Jersey's polling stations shut down, they won't have long to wait before the real-time results turn all eyes on the giant screens on the sides of the stage.

-- Jonathan Zebrowski in East Brunswick

Who does high turnout help?

2006-11-07T19:09:00.000-05:00

I've been thinking over which candidates would benefit from high overall turnout. While any candidate benefits by getting his or her supporters to the polls, certain campaigns would seem to gain disproportionately. Why? Because the other side was relying on superior enthusiasm to win. If unhappy constituents vote anyway, that advantage disappears. In no particular order, here are 6 races where I think this could be a factor:

CT-Sen: Lamont's only hope is that his base cares a lot more than Lieberman's base, so high turnout across the spectrum favors Joementum.

CT-House: The moderate Republican incumbents (Shays et al) would all benefit from the same factors that would help Lieberman, though it's unclear whether it can save them.

VA-Sen: The Democrats significantly outperformed expectations in the hardfought 2005 Gov. election, pointing to a stronger apparatus in close races with motivated voters. A good sign for Webb.

RI-Sen: Whitehouse is counting on Republicans not coming out to vote for the very liberal Chafee. If Republicans vote anyway, Whitehouse could be in trouble.

NY-26: Disgust at Tom Reynolds endangered this once safe Republican seat. Again, if the electorate turns out anyway, he's coming back to DC.

MT-Sen: Same dynamic helping Burns. Tester needs the Republican base to stay home if he is to pull this one off.

--Barry Caro

From Kean headquarters

2006-11-07T18:55:00.000-05:00

The press is setting up at Kean campaign headquarters, with a forest of cameras, reporters, and laptops. No officials from the campaign have made an appearance on stage or elsewhere in the main room, although the stage is set up for a victory or concession speech. Next to it is a large television set to track elections results as they come in. Reporters from local areas as well as major networks have turned out, and most are mentioning the high turnout in New Jersey today.

On the theme of elections results nation wide, conservative television and radio host Sean Hannity reported on his radio show that early exit polling indicated “a disaster for Republicans.” However, he pointed out that prior to the 2004 Presidential elections, exit polling indicated that John Kerry would win handily. Barry Caro's post below has more on exit polling.

As results come in and other news is announced, more will be posted. Once again, please feel free to e-mail mps@princeton.edu or comment below.

--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater

Early exit polling and other tidbits

2006-11-07T18:34:00.000-05:00

Some thoughts on the data that's been leaked so far.

1) I would be absolutely shocked if "corruption" is actually the most important issue in this election. That finding alone makes me extremely woried about the accuracy of the exit polling. Maybe the surveys were poorly written, but I simply do not believe that the War in Iraq is the 4th most important issue in voters' minds.

2) Selection bias and voting patterns. Simply put, Republicans generally vote later in the day. I would not be surprised if, as in 2004, the early returns favor the Democrats while the final numbers drift rightwards. In fact, the Dems may have gotten off to an early lead, but I remember that the early numbers in 2004 put my liberal family near the edge of euphoria. Additionally, exit polls, even in final form, seem to skew leftward.

3) Turnout is apparently massive, "more like a Presidential year than a midterm election." This could be good for either party, depending on the state. In 2004 the Dems hit all their turnout targets and still got swamped. This year, however, the edge in GOTV appears to fall differently depending on state. If disillusioned Republicans do vote alongside angry Dems, the Dems will again be asking what the heck happened.

4) Ford is probably toast. Even when the probably skewed exit polls put every other Dem ahead, he still trails. And Corker's volunteers are fired up.

5) I've yet to see anything suggesting this is in fact a wave election. While more complete data may change that opinion, as of now it doesn't look like an epic disaster for the GOP, unless you actually believe that corruption is in fact the number one issue motivating voters.

--Barry Caro

Menendez campaign coverage

2006-11-07T13:55:00.000-05:00

In just a few hours, I'll be reporting live from Senator Bob Menendez's election night headquarters at the East Brunswick Hilton. Menendez has been leading Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr. by a few points in the latest polls, and his campaign has referred to tonight's festivities as "a victory celebration." In addition to live viewing of race results for campaign supporters, the event will also offer remarks by Sen. Menendez, senior New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and other local and state officals. I'll be blogging and posting photos of the proceedings as the results stream in.

Menendez is campaigning on a firm anti-war stance and his record of outspoken opposition to President Bush's policies. The Menendez campaign has painted Kean as Bush's follower and ally, while Kean has retorted with calls for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's resignation and a depiction of Menendez as corrupt and deeply entrenched in a political machine. Tonight's results will determine which message was ultimately more successful in deciding one of the closest Senate races in the nation.

In the meantime, I'll be tracking the mood of the Menendez campaign and intervewing campaign officials and supporters to deliver an inside look at the last, tense moments of a Senate race. I'll be reading my comments and checking my e-mail (jzebrows@princeton.edu) as well, to be able to ask questions that you, our readers, want the answers to.

-- Jonathan Zebrowski

Kean campaign coverage

2006-11-07T12:40:00.000-05:00

The Kean Campaign has not yet responded to an e-mail sent out this morning regarding how they feel on election day. The most recent polls for the New Jersey Senate race are at this Web site, pollster.com, and the site shows a trend from a collection of polls. Their average of five recent polls shows Kean's opponent, Robert Menendez, with a 6 percentage point lead, as well as a trend towards an increasing Democratic lead.

However, an essay elsewhere on the site notes that in polls "a five point lead...turns out to be right only about 60-65% of the time." The essay discusses how accurate polls showing leads for a given candidate turn out to be on election day.

Kean has made an effort to reach out to college students through a Facebook profile, and a group with over 400 students at this point.

Throughout today and this evening, please feel free to e-mail me at mps@princeton.edu or post comments below about the Kean Campaign or the election in general.

--Mike Shapiro, at Princeton

Prediction time

2006-11-07T09:29:00.000-05:00

Here's how I see today's most contested races playing out:

Dem hold: New Jersey- Menendez 52.5%, Kean 47.5%. I just don't see Kean winning , and could see Menendez pulling away.

Civil warfare division: Connecticut- Lieberman 51%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 9%. There is no joy in Kos-ville, mighty Neddy has struck out.

Solid Dem pickups: Pennsylvania- Casey 57%, Santorum 43%. Easiest pick of the day by far.

Ohio- Brown 56%, Dewine 44%. Dewine is a victim of the Ohio Republican party implosion. He'll lose big but the blame lies elsewhere, mainly in the governor's mansion.

Close Dem pickups: Rhode Island- Whitehouse 52%, Chafee 48%. Chafee has a little too much ground to make up, but this one of my three races to watch. If Chafee can come back from the dead the Democrats are dead.

Virginia- Webb 51%, Allen 49%. While Dewine did nothing to lose, Allen has done nothing to win.

Close Rep pickup: Maryland- Steele 50.3%, Cardin 49.7%. This would be a huge blow to Senate Democrats. I'm worried about this pick because so many right wing pundits are making it, and political consensus has a lousy track record. This is another one that I'll be keeping a close eye on.

Close Rep holds: Missouri- Talent 51%, McCaskil 49%. Toss up, but in a mostly red state. I would feel comfortable picking either candidate.

Montana- Burns 50.2%, Tester49.8%. On the other hand, I don't feel comfortable going either way here. However, Burns has late momentum and is the incumbent, while Tester has been acting scared for a week. This is also Montana, so I'm going with the Republican. Race three on my radar.

Tennessee- Corker 53%, Ford 47%. The dangers of peaking too early. BTW, if Ford were a white Republican he would be despised by the press. Instead, he can claim God wants him to win and have the Washington Post laugh it off. If George Bush said that it would be front page news.

Rep holds: Arizona- Kyl 54%, Pederson 46%. And that's being generous to Pederson. This seat only goes if the Democrats outperform expectations in a massive way.

Overall, this gives a net Deomcratic gain of 3 seats, for a 52-48 Senate in Republican control. The House, however, is almost certain to flip. While most current predictions range from a 16 seat switch to a 40 seat tsunami, I think we'll likely be on the low end of that range. The national situation for the Democrats has soured considerably in the last week. I would guess that we will see a net gain of 19 to 23 seats for the Democrats.

-- Barry Caro

And they're off!

2006-11-07T08:37:00.000-05:00

I'm Barry Caro, opinion columnist from the Class of 2009, and I'll be posting some thoughts and observations here throughout the day. The first of these is that I'm not going to be happy no matter who wins today. The Republican Party and I don't see eye-to-eye on most issues, and incompetence is endemic in our government. The Democrats, on the other hand, have run a campaign based on the fact that they are not Republicans. The unfortunate truth is that no one knows what a Democratic Congress would look like because the Democrats have offered little more than hollow slogans to describe their plan of action in the event of victory.

Then of course there is Iraq. As I wrote two weeks ago, I feel that the media is probably painting an overly negative portrait of the war by reporting only the facts that fit with their storyline. Because of that, I cannot support precipitous withdrawal. And no matter how furiously you massage the message, precipitous withdrawal is what the Democratic platform boils down to. The current situation is far from perfect, which is the Republican's fault, but I've yet to see a realistic argument on how withdrawal would improve sectarian strife. So despite the Republicans' many faults, I can't be sure which party is the lesser evil. I'm an optimistic guy though, so I'll probably decide it's whichever one wins. Predictions soon ...

--Barry Caro

Let the blogging begin

2006-11-07T00:17:00.000-05:00

As students, faculty and other University community members head to the polls today, 'Prince' reporters and columnists will be tracking all the electoral action on this, our new blog, The Red, Orange and Blue.

Staff writers Jonathan Zebrowski and Mike Shapiro will, respectively, be blogging live from the campaign offices of New Jersey Senate candidates Bob Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. later today. Other reporters will be writing about campus reaction as the votes come in and columnists will be offering their own unique perspectives.

Also, in today's 'Prince,' Morganne Pollie '07 writes on behalf of the College Democrats, arguing that New Jerseyites should vote for Menendez because "President Bush and his Republican cronies have failed America" and "[t]he only way to stop the Republican hard-right agenda is to return Congress to the Democrats."

Jonathan Fernandez '08, writing on behalf of the College Republicans, argues that "[a]s tempting as [a vote for Menendez backed by an anti-war] argument may seem to some voters, upon further inspection of the candidates' records it is clear that Kean is the best choice to represent New Jersey."

And finally, be sure not to miss the guest column by Quinta Jurecic, an eighth-grade student at John Witherspoon Middle School in Princeton, where she's in a class taught by Tim Prugar '06. She wisely suggests that everyone who can vote should vote, because "[g]overnment does affect your life, and voting is the best way to voice your opinions. Though it may seem difficult to care at times, it is important to remember that it is your future the elections will change, and every single vote counts."

As the country watches to see how the results unfold, we hope you'll join us online, not only by reading the posts of our contributors, but by sharing your own thoughts as well using the comments feature.

-- Chan Sethi, Editor-in-chief