Reporting from New Hampshire

Starting today and in the week leading up to the New Hampshire primaries, two reporters for The Daily Princetonian will be on the ground criss-crossing the Granite State as the nation turns its attention toward pivotal contests in both parties. Staff Writers Matt Westmoreland '10 and Kate Benner '10 will report on the campaigns with a Princetonian angle, meeting with students volunteering for campaigns and alumni working on the trail or taking part in the primaries. We welcome your comments and discussion of the campaigns and our posts and photographs.

--Michael Shapiro '09, Executive Editor for Web

Final results (except the recounts!)

As of 8:21, it seems like the Democrats will have a majority in both houses of congress. In the three key Senate battles, Claire McCaskill has a 42,000 vote advantage, Jon Tester has a 1586 vote edge, and Jim Webb has a periously close 7,800 vote cushion. I think that what I said about Bush and executive power will still hold true, albeit to a lesser extent. A united congress will be something of a check, but I think we'll be seeing a lot of signing statements and ignored laws to the detriment of our democracy. One other prediction about the Senate: Joe Lieberman is suddenly going to become an extremely popular man. There are going to be a lot of Democrats (Kennedy, Kerry, Dodd especially) telling him, "You know I was just kidding with that whole Lamont thing, right Joe? Come on, don't look at me like that!"

Let's take a closer look at the house. Going by the results on CNN.com for every race, I found 13 out of the 14 races that haven't officially been called yet. In these, the Republican currently leads in 8 (albeit by narrow margins) and the Democrat leads in 5. If those results held, it would give a swing of 33 seats towards the Democrats. This is a phenomenal result for the boys in blue, but it could have been a lot bigger. Last night when presenting my "49% Doctrine," I suggested that the Democrats picked off the really vulnerable republican incumbents based solely on the anti-Bush mood but couldn't sweep the board without a positive national message, a la the Contract with America. I said at the time that I thought the Dems could easily have picked up another 12-15 seats by running on more than the fact that they aren't Republicans. I was right.

Looking through all the races in the House, I was able to find what I considered the 25 closest races. I tried to limit this to contests where the margin of victory, or current lead in undecided contests, was within 4 points. This is that next tier of contests, the group that would have fallen during a political earthquake. The Repbulicans won 16 of these 25 races (Fl-13, CT-04, Il-06, NV-03 NM-01, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-06, VA-02, WA-08, and WY-AL), and thanks to that showing the GOP remain competitive in the House. On a night when nationally the GOP got hammered, the Democrats were just barely too weak to run the table. Just to be clear, we're talking about 100,000 votes nationally being the difference between a great year and a legendary triumph. I am and will continue to be convinced that any nationalized message in addition to "Bush sucks" would have given the Dems most if not all of these seats (and a couple others, too) for a net gain of something like 45-50 seats.

That will be all for me. Thanks for coming along for the ride,

--Barry Caro

Republican hopes

While Republicans across the country are groaning over the loss of the House and the possible future loss of the Senate, there are still reasons for them to hope. Alex Maugeri '07, president of Princeton College Republicans, says that this is a great opportunity for the party to refocus. “This is what happens," he says, "when Republicans move away from their values. It’s a time for the Republicans to regroup, and a time for the Democrats to stumble.”

For whatever problems the Republicans are encountering now, there is no question that the Democrats' reign in the House of Representatives will not be easy. Future Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's position is "impossible," says Maugeri, also a 'Prince' editor. Many congressmen who picked up seats (Casey Jr., Lieberman, etc.) are "Democrats who aren't being Democrats," Maugeri said, holding several traditionally Republican values.

"This isn’t a governing coalition. The far left of the Democratic party has been totally repudiated and as a result I think the Democrats are going to have a very hard time governing and this bodes well for a 2008 presidential bid.”

This election is already being compared to the 1994 Republican sweep. But Maugeri says that similarities are not as perfect as Democrats would like. "Incumbents who lost seats were victims of wave of anti-war sentiment, which is not a governing philosophy. That’s what so different from 1994.”

Even Cindy Hong, Princeton College Democrats campaign chairman, agrees. "The election is more of a reaction against Republicans than a mandate for Democratic values," she says, based on a single issue:

Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.

-- Rachel Dunn in Frist Campus Center

The Senate: Back in play

Ok, so I'm gonna have to eat my words from a little while ago, but it looks like the Dems may have a chance at getting the Senate after all. A slim chance. Webb looks like he may be victorious after all (we'll have a recount for sure) and Tester is beating Burns, but it's still early out West. MD looks like it will narrowly stay blue after all. That means the Dems need to come from behind in either TN or MO and hold their narrow leads everywhere else. Is that likely? Probably not. But it is still possible.

In the House, the Republicans seem to have avoided a total meltdown. With 99% of the votes counted, they held 3 out of the 6 most vulnerable seats in NY. They're leading in two out of the three in CT. They held one of two in KY, and three of five in OH. This kept a bad night from turning into a 1994 style fiasco.

The reason for this is something I call the "49% doctrine." This is the idea that pure opposition can only get you to 49%, but that a majority requires some sort of positive agenda. Of the seats I mention above, the Republicans held eight of them by no more than 52-48 (NY-25, -26, -29, CT-02, -04, OH-01, -02, and -15). Of the six races the Democrat's won or are winning, only one is that close (NY-19). This means that the Republicans nearly swept all the really close races.

The Democrats succeeded in picking off the wink links, but weren't quite strong enough to defeat the next tier of opponents. I'm convinced that with any kind of positive national platform, those numbers would be reversed and the Democrats would be looking at a much larger House majority, probably on the order of 12-15 seats bigger. That would have made this a historic blowout, instead of a major victory.

--Barry Caro

Hard work, vision and frothy mixtures

John Kerry has just made a speech from Massachusetts, where he's been campaigning for incumbent Democrat Sen. Edward Kennedy. "Whether you're rich or poor, you can be sure that America is a place where hard work and vision mean you can realize your dreams," he says.

"And privilege!" calls out a frustrated grad student, Mai Hariu.

Ah yes, hard work and vision ... unless you're one of those kids that didn't study hard and ended up in Iraq instead.

Mark Christopher GS has his feet up in the graduate lounge of the Wilson school, where a bunch of MPA students are watching the results roll in and hurling jibes at the TV screen. Mark is fairly happy with the results so far.

"I'm not a big fan of that whole project Lieberman," he says. "I'm thrilled that Tom DeLay's seat looks like it's going to a Democrat. And I love the fact that Santorum got his ass kicked by Casey."

Mark then told me a little story about controversial arch-conservative Santorum, which I'd also heard earlier in the evening from Arielle Lutwick GS, the Democrat poll monitor. Many of you may know it already, but it was news to me as a Brit and to others in the room, so why not share it, since we're here for an evening of politico fun?

Back in 2003, Santorum compared states' rights to legislate on consensual homosexuality with their right to regulate bestiality or pedophilia. Openly gay newspaper columnist Dan Savage, who writes a column called Savage Love (syndicated by a variety of newspapers and The Onion), thought he'd get his own back. So he organized a reader competition to come up with a new sex-related term for "Santorum" that meant something other than the good Senator's name. The winning answer makes me blush, so I won't repeat it, but you can read it for yourself here.

I'll never look at Santorum in the same way again.

--Victoria Whitford

Menendez celebrates victory

The subdued excitement that had pervaded the Grand Ballroom all night suddenly and loudly gave way to joyful exuberance as Menendez supporters raised their placards in the air and shouted at the top of their lungs upon hearing of Tom Kean, Jr.'s concession of the Senate race. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine took the stage minutes later and addressed the gathered crowd. "New Jersey chose well, and I am proud of you," he said, introducing Menendez minutes later along with the candidate's two children and Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Taking the stage, Menendez opened with a long string of "thank yous," waved at the crowd and even jumped in the air to celebrate his victory. "I have walked by faith and not by sight," he said, referring to his belief that he would emerge victorious despite close polls and predictions otherwise by commentators.

"A few minutes ago, I received a call from Tom Kean, Jr., who conceded the election," Menendez told his assembled supporters, who erupted into simultaneous booing that nearly equaled the earlier cheering in volume and intensity.

Addressing his supporters, his opponents and "especially those who didn't vote at all," Menendez promised to wake up every morning with the intent to "fight for what is right for the people of New Jersey." Turning to Corzine, he said, "it's your victory," as Corzine had originally selected Menendez to fill his Senate seat upon ascending to the state governorship.

As the crowd continued to cheer, Menendez reiterated his key talking points, namely his opposition to President Bush on the war and on domestic issues, his stance against "justices who would have voted against a woman's right to choose" and his refusal to shift with political opinion.

"I didn't wait to see which way the political winds were blowing," he said, "and I never will."

Menendez then went on to deliver the beginning of his speech again in Spanish, to tremendous applause and, eventually, unison cries of "si se puede" (yes it is possible).

He and Corzine then descended from the stage and shook hands with the supporters crowding around the platform.

Earlier in the night, Menendez supporters had cheered loudly when a staffer projected upon the wall USA Today's online edition declaring him victorious. New Jersey ex-governor Jim Florio walked past soon afterward, declaring "tonight's the night, and an early night!" However, the crowd died down, earnestly awaiting the official announcement of Kean's concession.

-- Jonathan Zebrowski, in East Brunswick at the Menendez victory celebration

Webb Closes!

Half the Richmond City precincts came in -- Webb within 5k!

-- Mark Salzman

VA, TN, and MD update

If I ever gave the impression that VA is over, I apologize, because it clearly isn't. Allen leads by about 4,700 votes with about 2.5% of precincts still to report their totals. If you'll recall, I picked Webb to win this one and said that this would be a painfully close race. The outcome could easily be decided by less than 1000 votes, or perhaps less than 100.

Again, not to suggest that anything is over, but TN is looking like a win for the GOP. Corker leads by 3% with around 90% of precincts reporting.

MD seems to have been something of a polling disaster. With 50% of votes counted, Michael Steele (R) continues to lead Ben Cardin by a 2% margin. That state has been called for the Democrats. The Governor's race, which has also been called for the Democrats, is actually sporting a 5% Republican lead. This state was supposed to be a blowout. It isn't. Maryland and Virginia will be keeping us up late.

These races are all extremely close. They are not decided by any means, but the Republican currently leads in all of them.

UPDATE: Maryland has now put Cardin narrowly ahead, but the GOP candidate for Gov still leads with 57% results.

--Barry Caro

Don't count your chickens, Barry

Webb has closed to within 8,000 with 97% reporting. But look at the breakdown by precinct: With 78 precincts still to report, 74 come from counties that have gone for Webb. This includes three in populous Fairfax, one in Arlington (that goes for Webb 3-1), two each in Newport News and Norfolk City and a whopping 18 in Richmond City.

I think Webb can pull this out.

And as far as Maryland is concerned, the only reasons Steele looks like he's still in this is because the Democratic precincts haven't come in yet.

-- Mark Salzman

Executive power and a divided congress

In my previous post I mentioned that I thought that a divided legislative branch would have the effect of strengthening President Bush. The president has shown an alarming capacity to ignore laws he doesn't like. That tendency, worrisome with a tamed Republican congress, is downright scary when Bush has an incentive to ignore his opponents.

A divided Congress would also produce legislative gridlock. If the House and Senate can't reach agreement, then the President will likely act without waiting for their decisions. Therefore, I'd expect that we would see an expansion of executive privelige over the next two years and not a slowdown of growth. This isn't what a lot of people, myself included, would like to see happen.

--Barry Caro