As of 8:21, it seems like the Democrats will have a majority in both houses of congress. In the three key Senate battles, Claire McCaskill has a 42,000 vote advantage, Jon Tester has a 1586 vote edge, and Jim Webb has a periously close 7,800 vote cushion. I think that what I said about Bush and executive power will still hold true, albeit to a lesser extent. A united congress will be something of a check, but I think we'll be seeing a lot of signing statements and ignored laws to the detriment of our democracy. One other prediction about the Senate: Joe Lieberman is suddenly going to become an extremely popular man. There are going to be a lot of Democrats (Kennedy, Kerry, Dodd especially) telling him, "You know I was just kidding with that whole Lamont thing, right Joe? Come on, don't look at me like that!"
Let's take a closer look at the house. Going by the results on CNN.com for every race, I found 13 out of the 14 races that haven't officially been called yet. In these, the Republican currently leads in 8 (albeit by narrow margins) and the Democrat leads in 5. If those results held, it would give a swing of 33 seats towards the Democrats. This is a phenomenal result for the boys in blue, but it could have been a lot bigger. Last night when presenting my "49% Doctrine," I suggested that the Democrats picked off the really vulnerable republican incumbents based solely on the anti-Bush mood but couldn't sweep the board without a positive national message, a la the Contract with America. I said at the time that I thought the Dems could easily have picked up another 12-15 seats by running on more than the fact that they aren't Republicans. I was right.
Looking through all the races in the House, I was able to find what I considered the 25 closest races. I tried to limit this to contests where the margin of victory, or current lead in undecided contests, was within 4 points. This is that next tier of contests, the group that would have fallen during a political earthquake. The Repbulicans won 16 of these 25 races (Fl-13, CT-04, Il-06, NV-03 NM-01, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-06, VA-02, WA-08, and WY-AL), and thanks to that showing the GOP remain competitive in the House. On a night when nationally the GOP got hammered, the Democrats were just barely too weak to run the table. Just to be clear, we're talking about 100,000 votes nationally being the difference between a great year and a legendary triumph. I am and will continue to be convinced that any nationalized message in addition to "Bush sucks" would have given the Dems most if not all of these seats (and a couple others, too) for a net gain of something like 45-50 seats.
That will be all for me. Thanks for coming along for the ride,
--Barry Caro
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Final results (except the recounts!)
Republican hopes
While Republicans across the country are groaning over the loss of the House and the possible future loss of the Senate, there are still reasons for them to hope. Alex Maugeri '07, president of Princeton College Republicans, says that this is a great opportunity for the party to refocus. “This is what happens," he says, "when Republicans move away from their values. It’s a time for the Republicans to regroup, and a time for the Democrats to stumble.”
For whatever problems the Republicans are encountering now, there is no question that the Democrats' reign in the House of Representatives will not be easy. Future Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's position is "impossible," says Maugeri, also a 'Prince' editor. Many congressmen who picked up seats (Casey Jr., Lieberman, etc.) are "Democrats who aren't being Democrats," Maugeri said, holding several traditionally Republican values.
"This isn’t a governing coalition. The far left of the Democratic party has been totally repudiated and as a result I think the Democrats are going to have a very hard time governing and this bodes well for a 2008 presidential bid.”
This election is already being compared to the 1994 Republican sweep. But Maugeri says that similarities are not as perfect as Democrats would like. "Incumbents who lost seats were victims of wave of anti-war sentiment, which is not a governing philosophy. That’s what so different from 1994.”
Even Cindy Hong, Princeton College Democrats campaign chairman, agrees. "The election is more of a reaction against Republicans than a mandate for Democratic values," she says, based on a single issue:
Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.
-- Rachel Dunn in Frist Campus Center
The Senate: Back in play
Ok, so I'm gonna have to eat my words from a little while ago, but it looks like the Dems may have a chance at getting the Senate after all. A slim chance. Webb looks like he may be victorious after all (we'll have a recount for sure) and Tester is beating Burns, but it's still early out West. MD looks like it will narrowly stay blue after all. That means the Dems need to come from behind in either TN or MO and hold their narrow leads everywhere else. Is that likely? Probably not. But it is still possible.
In the House, the Republicans seem to have avoided a total meltdown. With 99% of the votes counted, they held 3 out of the 6 most vulnerable seats in NY. They're leading in two out of the three in CT. They held one of two in KY, and three of five in OH. This kept a bad night from turning into a 1994 style fiasco.
The reason for this is something I call the "49% doctrine." This is the idea that pure opposition can only get you to 49%, but that a majority requires some sort of positive agenda. Of the seats I mention above, the Republicans held eight of them by no more than 52-48 (NY-25, -26, -29, CT-02, -04, OH-01, -02, and -15). Of the six races the Democrat's won or are winning, only one is that close (NY-19). This means that the Republicans nearly swept all the really close races.
The Democrats succeeded in picking off the wink links, but weren't quite strong enough to defeat the next tier of opponents. I'm convinced that with any kind of positive national platform, those numbers would be reversed and the Democrats would be looking at a much larger House majority, probably on the order of 12-15 seats bigger. That would have made this a historic blowout, instead of a major victory.
--Barry Caro
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Hard work, vision and frothy mixtures
John Kerry has just made a speech from Massachusetts, where he's been campaigning for incumbent Democrat Sen. Edward Kennedy. "Whether you're rich or poor, you can be sure that America is a place where hard work and vision mean you can realize your dreams," he says.
"And privilege!" calls out a frustrated grad student, Mai Hariu.
Ah yes, hard work and vision ... unless you're one of those kids that didn't study hard and ended up in Iraq instead.
Mark Christopher GS has his feet up in the graduate lounge of the Wilson school, where a bunch of MPA students are watching the results roll in and hurling jibes at the TV screen. Mark is fairly happy with the results so far.
"I'm not a big fan of that whole project Lieberman," he says. "I'm thrilled that Tom DeLay's seat looks like it's going to a Democrat. And I love the fact that Santorum got his ass kicked by Casey."
Mark then told me a little story about controversial arch-conservative Santorum, which I'd also heard earlier in the evening from Arielle Lutwick GS, the Democrat poll monitor. Many of you may know it already, but it was news to me as a Brit and to others in the room, so why not share it, since we're here for an evening of politico fun?
Back in 2003, Santorum compared states' rights to legislate on consensual homosexuality with their right to regulate bestiality or pedophilia. Openly gay newspaper columnist Dan Savage, who writes a column called Savage Love (syndicated by a variety of newspapers and The Onion), thought he'd get his own back. So he organized a reader competition to come up with a new sex-related term for "Santorum" that meant something other than the good Senator's name. The winning answer makes me blush, so I won't repeat it, but you can read it for yourself here.
I'll never look at Santorum in the same way again.
--Victoria Whitford
Menendez celebrates victory
The subdued excitement that had pervaded the Grand Ballroom all night suddenly and loudly gave way to joyful exuberance as Menendez supporters raised their placards in the air and shouted at the top of their lungs upon hearing of Tom Kean, Jr.'s concession of the Senate race. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine took the stage minutes later and addressed the gathered crowd. "New Jersey chose well, and I am proud of you," he said, introducing Menendez minutes later along with the candidate's two children and Sen. Frank Lautenberg.
Taking the stage, Menendez opened with a long string of "thank yous," waved at the crowd and even jumped in the air to celebrate his victory. "I have walked by faith and not by sight," he said, referring to his belief that he would emerge victorious despite close polls and predictions otherwise by commentators.
"A few minutes ago, I received a call from Tom Kean, Jr., who conceded the election," Menendez told his assembled supporters, who erupted into simultaneous booing that nearly equaled the earlier cheering in volume and intensity.
Addressing his supporters, his opponents and "especially those who didn't vote at all," Menendez promised to wake up every morning with the intent to "fight for what is right for the people of New Jersey." Turning to Corzine, he said, "it's your victory," as Corzine had originally selected Menendez to fill his Senate seat upon ascending to the state governorship.
As the crowd continued to cheer, Menendez reiterated his key talking points, namely his opposition to President Bush on the war and on domestic issues, his stance against "justices who would have voted against a woman's right to choose" and his refusal to shift with political opinion.
"I didn't wait to see which way the political winds were blowing," he said, "and I never will."
Menendez then went on to deliver the beginning of his speech again in Spanish, to tremendous applause and, eventually, unison cries of "si se puede" (yes it is possible). 
He and Corzine then descended from the stage and shook hands with the supporters crowding around the platform.
Earlier in the night, Menendez supporters had cheered loudly when a staffer projected upon the wall USA Today's online edition declaring him victorious. New Jersey ex-governor Jim Florio walked past soon afterward, declaring "tonight's the night, and an early night!" However, the crowd died down, earnestly awaiting the official announcement of Kean's concession.
-- Jonathan Zebrowski, in East Brunswick at the Menendez victory celebration
VA, TN, and MD update
If I ever gave the impression that VA is over, I apologize, because it clearly isn't. Allen leads by about 4,700 votes with about 2.5% of precincts still to report their totals. If you'll recall, I picked Webb to win this one and said that this would be a painfully close race. The outcome could easily be decided by less than 1000 votes, or perhaps less than 100.
Again, not to suggest that anything is over, but TN is looking like a win for the GOP. Corker leads by 3% with around 90% of precincts reporting.
MD seems to have been something of a polling disaster. With 50% of votes counted, Michael Steele (R) continues to lead Ben Cardin by a 2% margin. That state has been called for the Democrats. The Governor's race, which has also been called for the Democrats, is actually sporting a 5% Republican lead. This state was supposed to be a blowout. It isn't. Maryland and Virginia will be keeping us up late.
These races are all extremely close. They are not decided by any means, but the Republican currently leads in all of them.
UPDATE: Maryland has now put Cardin narrowly ahead, but the GOP candidate for Gov still leads with 57% results.
--Barry Caro
Don't count your chickens, Barry
Webb has closed to within 8,000 with 97% reporting. But look at the breakdown by precinct: With 78 precincts still to report, 74 come from counties that have gone for Webb. This includes three in populous Fairfax, one in Arlington (that goes for Webb 3-1), two each in Newport News and Norfolk City and a whopping 18 in Richmond City.
I think Webb can pull this out.
And as far as Maryland is concerned, the only reasons Steele looks like he's still in this is because the Democratic precincts haven't come in yet.
-- Mark Salzman
Executive power and a divided congress
In my previous post I mentioned that I thought that a divided legislative branch would have the effect of strengthening President Bush. The president has shown an alarming capacity to ignore laws he doesn't like. That tendency, worrisome with a tamed Republican congress, is downright scary when Bush has an incentive to ignore his opponents.
A divided Congress would also produce legislative gridlock. If the House and Senate can't reach agreement, then the President will likely act without waiting for their decisions. Therefore, I'd expect that we would see an expansion of executive privelige over the next two years and not a slowdown of growth. This isn't what a lot of people, myself included, would like to see happen.
--Barry Caro
Steele leads; Allen up by 13,000
The Dems will take the House. It's all but official at this point. The only question is whether they have a sizeable majority or not.
The Senate will stay Republican. Allen leads by 13,200 votes with 95.6% of precincts reporting. Steel leads in Maryland by 11,000 votes with 38% reporting. Corker leads Ford by 65,000 votes with 74% reporting. Talent's lead has narrowed to 6% in MO.
What does this portend for the next two years? Chaos and stagnation. Neither side looks to have a dominant hold on Congress, so the one consequence could be a further expansion of executive power. More on that in a second.
--Barry Caro
VA to be closer still
Following up on Barry's post, watch VA to narrow beyond what CNN is reporting. The three largest counties with precincts still to report, Fairfax, Norfolk and Richmond, all go overwhelmingly for Webb. Once those come in, especially Richmond, Allen's lead is going to evaporate.
-- Mark Salzman
Hold on in VA
Webb has climbed within 12,000 votes with just under 6% left to be counted. This race has tightened significantly in a very short amount of time. The Republicans are not out of the woods quite yet.
UPDATE: Michael Steele is within 5,000 votes and one percent in Maryland 1/3 of the way through. This race is not yet safe for Cardin at this point.
--Barry Caro
Menendez delivers victory speech
Menendez in victory speach says Kean has called him to concede. Says that, "I understand that I am a new face to most of the people of this great state, but everyone in New Jersey should know this about me: Every single hour, of every single day for the next six years, I will dedicate myself to earning your strust and makign you proud."
-- Chan Sethi
Kean concedes
Republican Tom Kean, Jr. has conceded the Senate race.
-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign
Not yet time to celebrate
I'm in the Rockefeller common room right now, and there is growing optimism among my Democratic friends. I think this is at least premature, and possibly misplaced. Here's why:
1) Senate control is far from secure. The Dems have picked off all the low hanging fruit but haven't cracked the tough nuts. The GOP built a firewall around VA, MO, and TN, and is leading in all three. Their lead is currently 10 in MO and 5 in TN. With almost all the votes counted in VA, Allen appears to have eked out a narrow victory. If the Dems lose all three, the best they can legitimtaely hope for is 49 seats, and that requires Burns to lose.
2) Targeted House races are not going overwhelmingly Democratic and are still neck and neck. Heck, even Mark Foley's seat is still within 1000 votes, and no one expected the Republicans to hold that one. While the Dems may win all the tossups, that is by no means assured. We have a long night in front of us people, and nothing is decided yet.
--Barry Caro
Victory in Sleepy Hollow
There's a genteel buzz to the Democrats victory party at Conte's pizzeria in Princeton. Although CNN is calling for Menendez, there are no champagne corks popping. Rather the news is suffusing this crowd with a warm glow, as is the fine wine they're drinking on this chilly November evening.
The township's votes are being tallied on a whiteboard. It's clear that Princeton is a solidly Democratic town. Ruth Miller, a retiree who enjoying the party for the party, is laughing at the result for one of the Districts. "29 votes for Kean? That's 29 more than he deserved!"
Chad Goerner, a fresh-faced young Democrat and consultant at Merrill Lynch, is looking pretty happy - he's just been voted in as chair of Princeton Township Democratic Committee, one of the many side-races happening in this election. He tells me that the 8th District in Princeton has tended to be more Republican in the past, but this time Menendez has 314 votes to Kean's 248. One polling station is hardly representative of the entire State, I hear you object. "But it's a good sign that we've been able to get the township's Democratic grassroots out to vote", says Goerner.
Arielle Lutwick GS, a poll monitor for the Democrats, has just rushed in her poll results from Princeton Township's 12th District, where she's spent the day observing and getting on the phone to students who failed to get out of bed for the election.
I watched the polls close with her over at the 12th District's polling station in Jadwin, the physics lab. Compared to previous elections I've observed -- in Kosovo, Macedonia and Iraq -- American democracy is looking decidedly, wonderfully sleepy. There are no armed men wearing balaclavas, just fine upstanding citizens Paul Andersen '79 and George Hansen (Democrat and Republican respectively) manning the desk and explaining to confused undergrads how to fill in a provisional ballot. So far, so good.
-- Victoria Whitford
Kean said to concede soon, Nancy Johnson (R-CT) Defeated
A member of the press just walked by and told me that she had heard that Kean would soon give a concession speech.
In a update from my home district in Connecticut, according to contacts in the state, Democratic challenger Chris Murphy unseated long time incumbent Nancy Johnson.
--Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater
E-vote problems reported
The AP is reporting that problems with electronic voting machines have forced some poll workers to switch to paper ballots. CNN is also now reporting that in Pennsylvania, some e-voting machines were recording votes differently from what voters intended. The Pennsylvania secretary of state is talking about potential "undervoting." Though they're no reports of explicit machine manipulation, Princeton's own Ed Felten had warned of such problems.
-- Chan Sethi
Waiting continues at Kean headquarters
Waiting continues at the Kean campaign, while results continue to stream in from the large television, as well as blackberries and phones. The main campaign staff seem not to have left the "war room" as of yet, where one representative said they are waiting to hear from their workers stationed where the ballots are being counted. At this point, the assembled friends and workers are conversing and having cocktails, interspersed with tense conversations about other races across the country. As for the past two hours, press and campaign staff continually ask eachother what the latest news is from key races in other states.
--Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater
A Democratic Presence
If wild whoops and enthusiastic applause are any indication of party affiliation, the Democrats have a strong presence here at Frist. Ben Cardin and Casey Jr. received the loudest cheers yet when their projected wins were announced. Mixed reaction to Joe Lieberman—“I hate you, Connecticut!” definitely echoed from Democratic mouths—but blue is definitely the color of choice.
“It’s not surprising," College Democrats campaign coordinator Cindy Hong '09 responded, "because this campus is overwhelmingly Democratic, despite popular perceptions." She also told me that Democrats may have been more likely to show up to the party here because of hopes of flipping the House and Senate.
But Hong doesn't expect both houses to flip. “I think the House will [flip] and hopefully Pelosi will become the speaker. In the Senate, I think we’ll take four. We might not win Virginia…and Missouri is shaky as well. Obviously I want them to win.”
Democrats on campus may also have contributed to the New Jersey win. The College Democrats, several of whom were working at polling stations, saw 289 people register for District 1, most of them students. Of those votes, the ratio of Menendez votes to Kean Jr. votes was 4:1, Hong said.
But the Democrats are doing well around the country, having yet to lose an incumbent seat.
“I think it’s great," Hong said. But..."We don’t like to count our chickens before they’re hatched.”
--Rachel Dunn, Frist
Insiders report Allen campaign confident
A Kean representative with a blackberry in touch with other campaigns across the country just told me that "the Allen campaign is confident, and ahead by two points with most of Northern Virginia reporting." Northern Virginia is a typically Democratic area.
-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign
Three big wins for the Dems?
One is for sure. In KY-03, Republican Anne Northup narrowly lost to John Yarmouth. This is one of those bellweather races that could indicate the larger direction of the race. Now that the Dems have won it, Nancy Pelosi can start to breathe a little easier.
In Maryland, most of the networks are calling Ben Cardin the winner. The early results have Steele up, so exit polling must be really extreme here.
In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse is also looking victorious. This would be pickup number 3 in the Senate, but would not be that surprising.
In short, the Dems are looking good right now, but it will still come down to MO, VA, TN, and MT for Senate control.
--Barry Caro
Eliot Spitzer '81 wins New York
CNN is projecting that Eliot Spitzer '81, with 79 percent of the vote, has handily defeated Republican opponent John Fasco. Quite the shocker.
-- Chan Sethi
JOEMENTUM!!!!
Joesph Lieberman has survived the Netroots assault to defeat Ned Lamont. His apparent margin of victory does not bode well for Democratic House challengers like Diane Farrell, and that is a bad sign nationally for Democrats.
--Barry Caro
More results in, Menendez still ahead
David Norcross, who wears a yellow "War Room" tag and checks his blackberry every few minutes, says that "exit pollers are making some calls, but they're unreliable, I remember in 2004 they predicted Kerry would win." The most recent results show Menendez with a 52-46 lead (somehow) with 25 percent of precincts reporting.
-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign
Dems pick up the easy ones ...
Now comes the hard part. The GOP gave up on Ohio and Pennsylvania a long time ago, so I'm a little confused as to why CNN is treating the loss of Ohio as an apocalypse for the GOP. I don't think that a single conservative pundit picked DeWine to win. The only surprise would have been if the Democrats couldn't win this one, in which case I think there would have been very good reason to believe in a massive conspiracy theory. Still, the Dems are closer to 51 than they were yesterday, so it is a necessary victory for them.
In other news, no tossup house races have been called yet, so I have no feel for what the margin there will be.
--Barry Caro
Menendez supporters react to announcement
With several television channels and the Associated Press newswires having called the race for Menendez, there is surprisingly little reaction from the assembled supporters. As only about 7 percent of votes have actually been counted, the prediction is based on statistical analysis of exit polls, which leaves some in the room still skeptical while others smile widely.
"It is what it is," Democratic New Jersey Senate president Dick Codey said of the announcement. "They've only been wrong once [in the Florida election]."
When asked why Menendez should be re-elected, Codey glanced at the television screen as he said "He already was. He's the best candidate."
"Tom didn't define himself," Codey added. "This is a Democratic state, and they voted the traditional way."
Some still feel the election may be too close to call, like Robert Polakowski, vice president of the Association of Independent College and Universities in New Jersey, an organization of which Princeton is a member.
"We've been here before," Polakowski said, referring to close races and recounts. A veteran of the electoral process, having worked on campaigns for over twenty years, he still remained optimistic and confident in Menendez's eventual victory. "Tom Kean has name recognition, but he doesn't have the same experience as Bob Menendez," Polakowski said. "I think experience wins tonight, and Tom Jr. may have his day another day."
-- Jonathan Zebrowski, in East Brunwick with the Menendez campaign
Kean faithful remain hopeful despite predictions
Kean supporters are having tense discussions as results begin to come in. One staff member said that Kean is up 51 percentage points to 49, with 7 percent of precincts reporting. As one press member said to the group of Kean supporters, "three networks have called it for Menendez," the response was that it is too early to tell. Next to me, a reporter looking at an exit poll from CNN says that Menendez carried both women and men, while Kean won 49 percent of the caucasian vote.
-- Mike Shapiro, in Bridgewater with the Kean campaign
Menendez takes Jersey
CNN just called New Jersey for Sen. Bob Menendez. I'll leave it to my colleagues at the campaigns to discuss this one.
--Barry Caro
CBS Calls Menendez?
A press member just walked by and said that CBS has called the race for Robert Menendez. The campaign workers near me say "still a little early."
--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater
Anticipation growing in East Brunswick
The close of polls in New Jersey has come and gone and, like at the Kean campaign, the excitement hasn't particularly picked up as results have yet to start streaming in. The crowd continues to grow as bystanders form circles to discuss the importance of a Democratic takeover of the House or the Senate and occasionally let out a small cheer for announcements of Democratic victories in other states.
One level downstairs, the same mood pervades the Rush Holt campaign celebration, with eager and animated supporters coming in through the doors. Holt faces Republican challenger Joseph Sinagra, though the Democrat has a comfortable lead in the polls.
--Jonathan Zebrowski in East Brunswick
Princeton voting
The volume has been turned up, the balloons (both red and blue) have been tied up, fake dollar bills have been passed out, and the beverages have been placed on the table. Yep, it's official: the Princeton Frist election watch has begun.
While returns are coming in around the country, P-Votes co-chair Kris Ekdahl '07 has high hopes for Princeton voter turnout. "Overall, it's been a pretty good day for us," he told me. People seemed really excited about the election in general, he said. The most common reaction to all the P-Vote registration and get-out-to-vote initiatives? "Oh, shoot, I forgot to vote. How late are the polls open?" Let's hope that the pizza and doughnuts in the U-Store courtyard and the P-Vote t-shirts helped with memory loss.
Unfortunately, there's no real way to know for sure. P-Votes has decided that it is more labor-effective to convince people to vote rather than conduct exit polls or work at the polling stations themselves. Nevertheless, the four people behind me cheering at Menendez's victory may just have helped give him the seat.
--Rachel Dunn from Frist election watch
Tiger amongst Elephants
Members of the Kean Campaign have started filing into the main room, including Kean himself, as everyone is waiting for results. Campaign workers ask the press what they've heard, and vice versa, while everyone checks Web sites. One campaign worker told me that he and a partner put fliers on 5,000 cars this morning. Although some hope to get results within fifteen or twenty minutes, the the gathering group must be content to wait patiently.
--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater
Polls close in New Jersey
The closing of the polls, at 8:00 p.m., has come and gone with little change in activity at Kean campaign headquarters. While a large group of press fills the rear of the main room, and bartenders serve occasional drinks to the media crowd, few campaign officials are present in the room at this time. Nearby one reporter says "now the waiting game begins," as the stage at the front of the room remains, for a time, empty. Kean officials wearing yellow badges emblazoned with "War Room" continue to mill about. One official was just interviewed about the allegations of voting fraud, contained in a post below, and said that the reports were "bad stuff."
-- Mike Shapiro
More exit polling musings
In three governor's races where the incumbent was about 20 points ahead coming into today, exit polling apparently has the race as a dead heat. So again, take all numbers with a pound of salt. BTW, the bellweather house races in Kentucky and Indiana are all too close to call, according to CNN. The Democrats need to win those if they are going to have more than a token House majority.
--Barry Caro
Virginia buzz
The final exit polling in the Allen-Webb race apparently shows Webb ahead 50.5-48.5, which, if it holds, would essentially be the same as my 51-49 prediction. According to the same source, however, this is closer than it was in the "leaked polls" I was skeptical of earlier. If tht trend of late tightening continues, either Allen wins or Webb's margin will be painfully thin.
UPDATE: The corrected exit poll numbers actually give Webb a 51.1-47.9 advantage, though the overall trend is the same. The media is also not calling Ohio for Brown despite his holding a 16% lead in the exit polls. That should give you an idea of how much stock to put in exit polling.
--Barry Caro
Campus interest burgeoning at Frist?
Polls have just closed in Virginia, a closely-watched and supposedly keystone election, and excitement is filling the air at Frist ... not. Though formal parties and election watches have yet to begin, the sports TV has more significantly more viewers than the one centered on the election. People are sidling in with their takeout food and their laptops, but few have their attention focused on the TV screen. Indeed, it is so quiet at the CNN TV that captions are not even needed; the reporter is perfectly audible. It looks like problem sets are the rule of the day thus far.
--Rachel Dunn
Allegations of voting fraud in New Jersey
A reporter for Fox news just said that allegations of some sort of voter fraud have come from five counties in New Jersey. Allegedly, around twenty voters entered voting booths which had the name of Robert Menendez, Kean’s opponent, already lit up as the selected candidate.
-- Mike Shapiro
Anticipation at Menendez headquarters
With polls now closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, and with Sen. Menendez's event about to kick off shortly, the chatter in the room is excited and eager. Staffers and supporters alike are abuzz with results of preliminary exit polling, and the overall mood is optimistic.
As the press sets up and awaits the arrival of Menendez, Lautenberg, Corzine and company, campaign workers passing by shout to each other "We're going to do it!" and "Tonight's our night!" The stage is still empty, but the ever-increasing mass of people gathering in the reception area are talking more excitedly, especially about the Virginia Senate race that is as of yet too close to call.
With less than an hour before New Jersey's polling stations shut down, they won't have long to wait before the real-time results turn all eyes on the giant screens on the sides of the stage.
-- Jonathan Zebrowski in East Brunswick
Who does high turnout help?
I've been thinking over which candidates would benefit from high overall turnout. While any candidate benefits by getting his or her supporters to the polls, certain campaigns would seem to gain disproportionately. Why? Because the other side was relying on superior enthusiasm to win. If unhappy constituents vote anyway, that advantage disappears. In no particular order, here are 6 races where I think this could be a factor:
CT-Sen: Lamont's only hope is that his base cares a lot more than Lieberman's base, so high turnout across the spectrum favors Joementum.
CT-House: The moderate Republican incumbents (Shays et al) would all benefit from the same factors that would help Lieberman, though it's unclear whether it can save them.
VA-Sen: The Democrats significantly outperformed expectations in the hardfought 2005 Gov. election, pointing to a stronger apparatus in close races with motivated voters. A good sign for Webb.
RI-Sen: Whitehouse is counting on Republicans not coming out to vote for the very liberal Chafee. If Republicans vote anyway, Whitehouse could be in trouble.
NY-26: Disgust at Tom Reynolds endangered this once safe Republican seat. Again, if the electorate turns out anyway, he's coming back to DC.
MT-Sen: Same dynamic helping Burns. Tester needs the Republican base to stay home if he is to pull this one off.
--Barry Caro
From Kean headquarters
On the theme of elections results nation wide, conservative television and radio host Sean Hannity reported on his radio show that early exit polling indicated “a disaster for Republicans.” However, he pointed out that prior to the 2004 Presidential elections, exit polling indicated that John Kerry would win handily. Barry Caro's post below has more on exit polling.
As results come in and other news is announced, more will be posted. Once again, please feel free to e-mail mps@princeton.edu or comment below.
--Mike Shapiro in Bridgewater
Early exit polling and other tidbits
Some thoughts on the data that's been leaked so far.
1) I would be absolutely shocked if "corruption" is actually the most important issue in this election. That finding alone makes me extremely woried about the accuracy of the exit polling. Maybe the surveys were poorly written, but I simply do not believe that the War in Iraq is the 4th most important issue in voters' minds.
2) Selection bias and voting patterns. Simply put, Republicans generally vote later in the day. I would not be surprised if, as in 2004, the early returns favor the Democrats while the final numbers drift rightwards. In fact, the Dems may have gotten off to an early lead, but I remember that the early numbers in 2004 put my liberal family near the edge of euphoria. Additionally, exit polls, even in final form, seem to skew leftward.
3) Turnout is apparently massive, "more like a Presidential year than a midterm election." This could be good for either party, depending on the state. In 2004 the Dems hit all their turnout targets and still got swamped. This year, however, the edge in GOTV appears to fall differently depending on state. If disillusioned Republicans do vote alongside angry Dems, the Dems will again be asking what the heck happened.
4) Ford is probably toast. Even when the probably skewed exit polls put every other Dem ahead, he still trails. And Corker's volunteers are fired up.
5) I've yet to see anything suggesting this is in fact a wave election. While more complete data may change that opinion, as of now it doesn't look like an epic disaster for the GOP, unless you actually believe that corruption is in fact the number one issue motivating voters.
--Barry Caro
Menendez campaign coverage
In just a few hours, I'll be reporting live from Senator Bob Menendez's election night headquarters at the East Brunswick Hilton. Menendez has been leading Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr. by a few points in the latest polls, and his campaign has referred to tonight's festivities as "a victory celebration." In addition to live viewing of race results for campaign supporters, the event will also offer remarks by Sen. Menendez, senior New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and other local and state officals. I'll be blogging and posting photos of the proceedings as the results stream in.
Menendez is campaigning on a firm anti-war stance and his record of outspoken opposition to President Bush's policies. The Menendez campaign has painted Kean as Bush's follower and ally, while Kean has retorted with calls for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's resignation and a depiction of Menendez as corrupt and deeply entrenched in a political machine. Tonight's results will determine which message was ultimately more successful in deciding one of the closest Senate races in the nation.
In the meantime, I'll be tracking the mood of the Menendez campaign and intervewing campaign officials and supporters to deliver an inside look at the last, tense moments of a Senate race. I'll be reading my comments and checking my e-mail (jzebrows@princeton.edu) as well, to be able to ask questions that you, our readers, want the answers to.
-- Jonathan Zebrowski
Kean campaign coverage
The Kean Campaign has not yet responded to an e-mail sent out this morning regarding how they feel on election day. The most recent polls for the New Jersey Senate race are at this Web site, pollster.com, and the site shows a trend from a collection of polls. Their average of five recent polls shows Kean's opponent, Robert Menendez, with a 6 percentage point lead, as well as a trend towards an increasing Democratic lead.
However, an essay elsewhere on the site notes that in polls "a five point lead...turns out to be right only about 60-65% of the time." The essay discusses how accurate polls showing leads for a given candidate turn out to be on election day.
Kean has made an effort to reach out to college students through a Facebook profile, and a group with over 400 students at this point.
Throughout today and this evening, please feel free to e-mail me at mps@princeton.edu or post comments below about the Kean Campaign or the election in general.
--Mike Shapiro, at Princeton
Prediction time
Here's how I see today's most contested races playing out:
Dem hold: New Jersey- Menendez 52.5%, Kean 47.5%. I just don't see Kean winning , and could see Menendez pulling away.
Civil warfare division: Connecticut- Lieberman 51%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 9%. There is no joy in Kos-ville, mighty Neddy has struck out.
Solid Dem pickups: Pennsylvania- Casey 57%, Santorum 43%. Easiest pick of the day by far.
Ohio- Brown 56%, Dewine 44%. Dewine is a victim of the Ohio Republican party implosion. He'll lose big but the blame lies elsewhere, mainly in the governor's mansion.
Close Dem pickups: Rhode Island- Whitehouse 52%, Chafee 48%. Chafee has a little too much ground to make up, but this one of my three races to watch. If Chafee can come back from the dead the Democrats are dead.
Virginia- Webb 51%, Allen 49%. While Dewine did nothing to lose, Allen has done nothing to win.
Close Rep pickup: Maryland- Steele 50.3%, Cardin 49.7%. This would be a huge blow to Senate Democrats. I'm worried about this pick because so many right wing pundits are making it, and political consensus has a lousy track record. This is another one that I'll be keeping a close eye on.
Close Rep holds: Missouri- Talent 51%, McCaskil 49%. Toss up, but in a mostly red state. I would feel comfortable picking either candidate.
Montana- Burns 50.2%, Tester49.8%. On the other hand, I don't feel comfortable going either way here. However, Burns has late momentum and is the incumbent, while Tester has been acting scared for a week. This is also Montana, so I'm going with the Republican. Race three on my radar.
Tennessee- Corker 53%, Ford 47%. The dangers of peaking too early. BTW, if Ford were a white Republican he would be despised by the press. Instead, he can claim God wants him to win and have the Washington Post laugh it off. If George Bush said that it would be front page news.
Rep holds: Arizona- Kyl 54%, Pederson 46%. And that's being generous to Pederson. This seat only goes if the Democrats outperform expectations in a massive way.
Overall, this gives a net Deomcratic gain of 3 seats, for a 52-48 Senate in Republican control. The House, however, is almost certain to flip. While most current predictions range from a 16 seat switch to a 40 seat tsunami, I think we'll likely be on the low end of that range. The national situation for the Democrats has soured considerably in the last week. I would guess that we will see a net gain of 19 to 23 seats for the Democrats.
-- Barry Caro
And they're off!
I'm Barry Caro, opinion columnist from the Class of 2009, and I'll be posting some thoughts and observations here throughout the day. The first of these is that I'm not going to be happy no matter who wins today. The Republican Party and I don't see eye-to-eye on most issues, and incompetence is endemic in our government. The Democrats, on the other hand, have run a campaign based on the fact that they are not Republicans. The unfortunate truth is that no one knows what a Democratic Congress would look like because the Democrats have offered little more than hollow slogans to describe their plan of action in the event of victory.
Then of course there is Iraq. As I wrote two weeks ago, I feel that the media is probably painting an overly negative portrait of the war by reporting only the facts that fit with their storyline. Because of that, I cannot support precipitous withdrawal. And no matter how furiously you massage the message, precipitous withdrawal is what the Democratic platform boils down to. The current situation is far from perfect, which is the Republican's fault, but I've yet to see a realistic argument on how withdrawal would improve sectarian strife. So despite the Republicans' many faults, I can't be sure which party is the lesser evil. I'm an optimistic guy though, so I'll probably decide it's whichever one wins. Predictions soon ...
--Barry Caro
Let the blogging begin
As students, faculty and other University community members head to the polls today, 'Prince' reporters and columnists will be tracking all the electoral action on this, our new blog, The Red, Orange and Blue.
Staff writers Jonathan Zebrowski and Mike Shapiro will, respectively, be blogging live from the campaign offices of New Jersey Senate candidates Bob Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. later today. Other reporters will be writing about campus reaction as the votes come in and columnists will be offering their own unique perspectives.
Also, in today's 'Prince,' Morganne Pollie '07 writes on behalf of the College Democrats, arguing that New Jerseyites should vote for Menendez because "President Bush and his Republican cronies have failed America" and "[t]he only way to stop the Republican hard-right agenda is to return Congress to the Democrats."
Jonathan Fernandez '08, writing on behalf of the College Republicans, argues that "[a]s tempting as [a vote for Menendez backed by an anti-war] argument may seem to some voters, upon further inspection of the candidates' records it is clear that Kean is the best choice to represent New Jersey."
And finally, be sure not to miss the guest column by Quinta Jurecic, an eighth-grade student at John Witherspoon Middle School in Princeton, where she's in a class taught by Tim Prugar '06. She wisely suggests that everyone who can vote should vote, because "[g]overnment does affect your life, and voting is the best way to voice your opinions. Though it may seem difficult to care at times, it is important to remember that it is your future the elections will change, and every single vote counts."
As the country watches to see how the results unfold, we hope you'll join us online, not only by reading the posts of our contributors, but by sharing your own thoughts as well using the comments feature.
-- Chan Sethi, Editor-in-chief