Prediction time

Here's how I see today's most contested races playing out:

Dem hold: New Jersey- Menendez 52.5%, Kean 47.5%. I just don't see Kean winning , and could see Menendez pulling away.

Civil warfare division: Connecticut- Lieberman 51%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 9%. There is no joy in Kos-ville, mighty Neddy has struck out.

Solid Dem pickups: Pennsylvania- Casey 57%, Santorum 43%. Easiest pick of the day by far.

Ohio- Brown 56%, Dewine 44%. Dewine is a victim of the Ohio Republican party implosion. He'll lose big but the blame lies elsewhere, mainly in the governor's mansion.

Close Dem pickups: Rhode Island- Whitehouse 52%, Chafee 48%. Chafee has a little too much ground to make up, but this one of my three races to watch. If Chafee can come back from the dead the Democrats are dead.

Virginia- Webb 51%, Allen 49%. While Dewine did nothing to lose, Allen has done nothing to win.

Close Rep pickup: Maryland- Steele 50.3%, Cardin 49.7%. This would be a huge blow to Senate Democrats. I'm worried about this pick because so many right wing pundits are making it, and political consensus has a lousy track record. This is another one that I'll be keeping a close eye on.

Close Rep holds: Missouri- Talent 51%, McCaskil 49%. Toss up, but in a mostly red state. I would feel comfortable picking either candidate.

Montana- Burns 50.2%, Tester49.8%. On the other hand, I don't feel comfortable going either way here. However, Burns has late momentum and is the incumbent, while Tester has been acting scared for a week. This is also Montana, so I'm going with the Republican. Race three on my radar.

Tennessee- Corker 53%, Ford 47%. The dangers of peaking too early. BTW, if Ford were a white Republican he would be despised by the press. Instead, he can claim God wants him to win and have the Washington Post laugh it off. If George Bush said that it would be front page news.

Rep holds: Arizona- Kyl 54%, Pederson 46%. And that's being generous to Pederson. This seat only goes if the Democrats outperform expectations in a massive way.

Overall, this gives a net Deomcratic gain of 3 seats, for a 52-48 Senate in Republican control. The House, however, is almost certain to flip. While most current predictions range from a 16 seat switch to a 40 seat tsunami, I think we'll likely be on the low end of that range. The national situation for the Democrats has soured considerably in the last week. I would guess that we will see a net gain of 19 to 23 seats for the Democrats.

-- Barry Caro