Early exit polling and other tidbits

Some thoughts on the data that's been leaked so far.

1) I would be absolutely shocked if "corruption" is actually the most important issue in this election. That finding alone makes me extremely woried about the accuracy of the exit polling. Maybe the surveys were poorly written, but I simply do not believe that the War in Iraq is the 4th most important issue in voters' minds.

2) Selection bias and voting patterns. Simply put, Republicans generally vote later in the day. I would not be surprised if, as in 2004, the early returns favor the Democrats while the final numbers drift rightwards. In fact, the Dems may have gotten off to an early lead, but I remember that the early numbers in 2004 put my liberal family near the edge of euphoria. Additionally, exit polls, even in final form, seem to skew leftward.

3) Turnout is apparently massive, "more like a Presidential year than a midterm election." This could be good for either party, depending on the state. In 2004 the Dems hit all their turnout targets and still got swamped. This year, however, the edge in GOTV appears to fall differently depending on state. If disillusioned Republicans do vote alongside angry Dems, the Dems will again be asking what the heck happened.

4) Ford is probably toast. Even when the probably skewed exit polls put every other Dem ahead, he still trails. And Corker's volunteers are fired up.

5) I've yet to see anything suggesting this is in fact a wave election. While more complete data may change that opinion, as of now it doesn't look like an epic disaster for the GOP, unless you actually believe that corruption is in fact the number one issue motivating voters.

--Barry Caro